Further Deceleration In Nowcasted “Core GDP”
Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption and fixed investment) to GDP growth (q/q AR) was 2.84%, close to the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.
Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (black), GDPNow nowcast (light blue square), November Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed 12/11, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
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