Four Week Average Of Initial Claims Drops Below “Yellow Flag” Level, For Now
While GDP will get the lion’s share of attention today (and I’ll post on it later on), by and large, it is a look in the rearview mirror. The more forward-looking data is weekly jobless claims.
This week initial claims declined from -16,000 last week to 230,000. The more important 4-week average declined from -4,000 to 236,000. Continuing claims, with a one-week lag, declined from -3,000 to 1.858 million:
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More importantly for forecasting purposes, YoY initial claims were up 11.1%, the 4-week average up 9.8%, and continuing claims up 22.1%:
(Click on image to enlarge)
That the 4-week average declined below 10% removes the “yellow flag” recession caution for the moment, although the increase in continuing claims is consistent with a recession in the immediate future.
More By This Author:
Transportation Orders Increase, But Core Capital Goods Orders Decline Further In MarchMarch New Home Sales Report
House Prices On Track To Go Negative YoY By Summer, Despite Monthly Increase In February
Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.
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