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Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers.
 

Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 7/25 (red *), GDPNow of 7/29 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR.  Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

Since this series excludes imports and exports as well as inventories, it should be less affected by distortions associated with tariff front-running. That nowcasted final sales growth in Q2 is  0.8% SAAR, down from 0.9% just four days ago. Moreover, this Q2 growth rate is less than half the 1.9% in Q1, and 2.9% in 2024Q4.

So, don’t be overly focused on GDP.

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