• Ethereum continues to see a lot of back-and-forths, as there’s no real reason to get excited at this point.
• Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to figure out what happens next, as we now have the “Merge” coming down the road, but it’s obvious that we have already priced that in.
• There’s no surprise here unless, of course, it doesn’t work. If the merge does not work, or if there is some type of major failing, then it’s likely that Ethereum will get crushed.

The 50-Day EMA sits in the same general vicinity; therefore, I think it makes quite a bit of sense that we are going to continue to hug it. The moving average is flat, so that suggests that it is very little in the way of momentum. The $1500 level underneath it should offer support, and if we were to break through that, it’s likely that we will continue to see downward pressure, perhaps opening the possibility of a drop-down to the $1250 level, followed by the $1000 level. The $1000 level is a longer-term floor, and if we were to break down below there, then the bottom would fall out.
 

Wait to Build Up a Position

I would love to see Ethereum drop below the $1000 level, so we could see Ethereum drop down to the $400 area. If that were to happen, it would be very likely an opportunity to start building a longer-term basing pattern. At that point, it would be a huge accumulation area just waiting to happen, then I think if we take off from there, then it could be a longer-term position. I will be buying Ethereum left and right in that general vicinity because that is where the last major rally took off from. Obviously, it could take quite a while to go to the upside, in the next bullish run. I think you have plenty of time to build up a position.

The alternate scenario of course would be that we took off to the $2000 level and then broke above there. The 200-Day EMA sits right in that same general vicinity, and therefore a break above that could be thought of as a trend change. I don’t see that happening anytime soon, but it’s something worth watching.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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