• The BTC/USD continues to struggle to gain any real traction. That should not be a huge surprise, considering that the crypto markets are a risk appetite-driven asset, and as long as we continue to see a lot of fear come into the market, then it’s likely that we continue to see Bitcoin supper.
• Furthermore, you need to keep an eye on the other side of this trade, which of course is the US dollar.
• The US dollar is like a wrecking ball to anything that’s risk-related, and that’s especially true with this market.

One of the biggest problems we have with Bitcoin now is that it’s still not been adopted in most countries. True, it is being adopted in some Third World nations, but quite frankly when it’s so expensive, and more importantly, volatile, it does not function as a worthwhile form of money.
 

Price Likely to Continue Dropping

In other words, this is a market that needs a lot of hot money flying into the market, and perhaps with little thought. The thing about this market is that it is either in the speculative bubble or it is not. You need to understand risk appetite and monetary flow to understand where prices going. In this scenario, it is the ultimate risk as said, so you need to pay close attention to things like bonds and stocks. Bitcoin was supposed to be so many different things, but at this point, it is behaving more like a three times Nasdaq 100 ETF. In other words, it’s not until risk appetite takes off that Bitcoin can. It simply does not have the staying power as a stable asset.

In this scenario, we could see it function down the road as something a little bit more substantial. It’s also worth noting that the central banks around the world are coming up with their own digital currencies, and while somewhat dystopian, the reality is that most people will choose to go with that. We will have to see what the next charge higher in Bitcoin brings as far as the narrative is concerned, but it is worth noting that the biggest driver is the narrative. At this point, there’s nothing good in any of the narratives to suggest that you should put money into this asset. More likely than not, Bitcoin is going to finally break down significantly below the $20,000 level, and perhaps dropped to $12,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

More By This Author: