New highs are piling up, leadership is rotating in constructive ways, and momentum remains firmly intact. At the same time, the signals underneath the surface are less decisive. Strength shows up, then hesitates. Breakouts appear, then stall. This environment rewards attention and but complacency can be punished with suddenness.

Small caps delivered an important leadership signal with a burst of broad participation in the form of market breadth finally ending a months-long downtrend. However, that breakout faded just short of an important threshold which defines an overbought market. Such fades are often the beginning of a bearish phase of trading. Add in a steady drumbeat of geopolitical headlines, policy uncertainty, and a packed macro calendar, this market feels both exciting and unsettling at the same time.

Below is a video where I walk through the key charts, explain what I am watching beneath the headlines, and outline how I am balancing short-term opportunity with growing risk awareness.

Video length 00:30:50

You can find the related blog post here.

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