Since the beginning of our US ETF sector on the 11th of March we have closely monitored GDX more than any other ETF because of the good opportunities the Wave Principle says it will offer. This blog is one of many forecasts made that dissect the ETF.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF – GDX (1D) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart 

Function: Major trend  

Mode: Motive 

Structure: Impulse 

Position: Wave [i] navy 

Direction: Rally 

Details: 

• Wave 3 is still in its early stages. We’ve only reached the 61.8% wave extension suggesting that there’s more room for the upside.  
•  Subwave 1 of 3 is yet to be completed then then followed by a subwave 2 correction which shouldn’t take out the critical support at $38.59 
• The wave 1 peak is expected to act as support to the subsequent decline which will be setting the stage for a further climb – wave [iii] of 3 to be specific. 

Invalidation level: $38.58

(Click on image to enlarge)

VanEck Gold Miners ETF – GDX (4H) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 

Hourly Chart 

Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey). 

Mode: Motive 

Structure: Impulse 

Position: Wave (iv) orange  

Direction: Rally. 

Details: 

• Wave (iv) of [i] is unfolding as a triangle. A tiny decline is expected to complete the triangle before we see the post triangle thrust. 
• The 5th wave of [i] should take us towards $49.00 before wave [ii] begins. 

Invalidation level: $44.50

(Click on image to enlarge)

Conclusion:  

The summary of the Elliott Wave analyses above is as follows: 

• GDX continues to rally, and the uptrend is still young. 
• The post triangle thrust will likely offer a good short-term buying opportunity. 
• The $49.00 is the price of interest for wave [i] termination. 
• Waiting for wave [ii] correction is a good opportunity to go long. 
• Adherence to Elliott Wave rules and keeping track of invalidation levels is necessary for traders to prevent avoidable losses.

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