The One-Minute Market Report - Saturday, Oct. 7

TM Editors' note: This article discusses a penny stock and/or microcap. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence.


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In this weekly market report, we will take a look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, and exchange-traded funds that moved the market higher, as well as the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower. Identifying the winners and losers allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.


The S&P 500 Pullback Continues

For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.5%. We are now 6.2% below the 2023 high water mark, which was set on July 31. The market is still in the process of digesting its gains and grappling with high and rising interest rates. 

s&p 500 daily prices 10-6-23


A Look at Monthly Returns

The chart below shows the monthly returns for the past year. October has been off to a positive start after losing ground in August and September.

s&p 500 monthly returns 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The Bull Market is Well Below the Trend Line

The following chart highlights the 20.4% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. The index is now 10.2% below its record high close seen on Jan. 3, 2022.

bull run 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The Golden Cross

The market entered a Golden Cross configuration (a Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average) on Feb. 2, 2023. 

The spread between these two moving averages is beginning to narrow. Today, it stands at 5.0%, which is twice as wide as the long-term average of 2.3%. This wide spread is one of the reasons I'm expecting the current pullback to continue. Worth mentioning is the fact that the 50-day line is now pointing nose down, which is further evidence of the loss of upward momentum. 

Golden Cross 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


Major Asset Class Performance

Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the year-to-date returns and the returns seen since the Oct. 12, 2022 low for additional context.

The best performer last week was Volatility, as investors were willing to pay higher premiums to hedge their downside risk. The worst performing asset class last week was Commodities. Oil is down 10.8% from its recent peak. Precious metals are also down as it become more expensive to hold gold and silver.

asset class returns 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


Equity Sector Performance

For this report, I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.

Technology and Communication Services stocks held up the best last week. Energy, Retail, and Consumer Staples were the hardest-hit, as higher rates began to bite and summer travel continued to wind down.

s&p 500 sector returns 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


Equity Group Performance

For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.

The S&P top 7 mega-cap tech stocks led the market higher last week. In fact, large-cap stocks were the only winners for the week. Leadership and participation has narrowed once again, which is not a healthy sign for the market. The worst performing groups were small-cap and mid-cap value stocks. 

equity group returns 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The S&P Top 7

Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market all year. Nvidia (NVDA) was the biggest winner, up 5.2% for the week.

These seven stocks account for 85% of the total year-to-date gain in the S&P 500. That's up from 79% just two weeks ago, providing evidence that participation in the bull market is narrowing once again. 

Top 7 returns 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The 10 Best Performing ETFs from Last Week

Bitcoin has been rallying this year, but it is still down by 54% from its peak set back in October 2021. Semiconductor stocks were strong, led by Nvidia's performance.

best ETFs 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The 10 Worst Performing ETFs from Last Week

After three weeks atop the leader board, cannabis stocks have given back 22% over the past three weeks. Five of the ten worst performing ETFs last week are from the energy sector.

worst ETFs 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The 10 Best Performing Stocks from Last Week

Here are the 10 best performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week. Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) caught a bid after Argus Research raised their price target. 

best stocks 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


The 10 Worst Performing Stocks from Last Week

Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week. Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) shares tumbled 26% after revenue from co-branded prepaid cards was reclassified.

worst stocks 10-6-23

Image Source: ZenInvestor


Final Thoughts

The S&P top 7 stocks continue to dominate the market. As the following chart shows, these seven mega-cap tech stocks account for 85% of the S&P 500 year-to-date gain. 

Top 7 share of S&P 500 gains YTD 10-6-23

A hypothetical portfolio comprised of these seven stocks, weighted equally, would be up by 91.1% year-to-date, vs. 12.2% for the S&P 500. The next chart illustrates this.

Top 7 chart vs. S&P 500 10-6-23

Image Source: StockRover

Since the recent market peak on July 31, the S&P 500 is down 6.2% and the top 7 cohort is down by 2.5%. This tells me that the top 7 stocks have not "rolled over," at least not yet. What we're seeing instead is a market pullback that has broad participation. Put another way, it looks like investors are trimming back their exposure to a broad range of equities rather than focusing on the more expensive market leaders.

As this pullback continues to play out, I will be paying close attention to what's happening with the top 7. For now, at least, they still call the tune.


More By This Author:

The One-Minute Market Report - Saturday, Sept. 23
The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, Sept. 10
The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, Sept. 3

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only, and ZenInvestor.org is not an investment advisory service, nor an investment advisor, nor does ZenInvestor.org provide personalized ...

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