The Market Spies A Jolly Roger
“Ahoy, me hearties!” September 19th was International Talk Like a Pirate Day. Our diver (right), however, is no pirate. But he is underwater, standing defensively to protect his booty just in case a pirate comes along.
Semiconductors remain as resilient as a salty dog while Retail has us saying, “Aaaarrrrgggghhhh!”
The divergence among the sectors has plagued the seas all year. During the sharp decline in January, virtually everything sank in unison. Since then, the Modern Family (IWM, SMH, XRT, IBB, IYT, KRE) has yet to get all hands on deck!
So to all you “scallywags” and “seadogs” trading the market, is the market telling us to “weigh anchor and hoist the mizzen” or should we start to “batten down the hatches?”
To date, besides Semiconductors, the Russell 2000 makes a “heave ho” attempt to stay bullish.
Yet, that has not been enough to get the other sectors shipshape. Retail in particular has nearly pillaged the rally since its peak in August. In order for Granny to “bring a spring upon her,” she has to clear last week’s high at 44.17 and set sail.
In addition to Retail, Transportation has had a wee bit of “yellow fever.” That ship hoists a yellow flag. What we do not know for sure yet, is if the flag signals an ill crew member or is a ruse to avoid more plunder.
Biotechnology, on the other hand, tries to fill the market’s coffers. Holding support above the key daily and weekly moving averages, IBB must now clipper past 300.
Last week Nasdaq sang “Yo, ho, ho and a bottle of rum.” With now 4 attempts to take out the recent highs, today’s selloff suggests a mutiny among the FANG stocks could be in the works.
With the Fed meeting this week, our “privateers” could leave the bulls marooned. Presently however, before we yell “Fire in the hole,” let’s “keep the grog flowing and splice the mainbrace!”
S&P 500 (SPY) 212.00 critical support to hold with a move over 216 better
Russell 2000 (IWM) 122.18 level pivotal support. Through 124.25 way better
Dow (DIA) I must say the suspense around if it will hold 180 or not is spellbinding
Nasdaq (QQQ) 118.12 the high to clear. 116.50 clutch place to hold
XLF (Financials) Removed the REIT part of this and now big bank financial -so prices changed as did historical data
KRE (Regional Banks) 41.13 the 50 DMA to defend
SMH (Semiconductors) 65.75 now pivotal support
IYT (Transportation) 139.45 needs to hold on a closing basis.
IBB (Biotechnology) 285-290 support.
XRT (Retail) Uncomfortably close to breaking down under 43.25 if cannot rally over 44.17
IYR (Real Estate) Somewhat of an encouraging breakout over last week’s lows.
GLD (Gold Trust) Holding support levels and if can close back over 126 area looks great
SLV (Silver) Over 18.25 on a closing basis better
USO (US Oil Fund) Uninteresting until it clears the weekly moving average
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Will be harder to predict this week with the Fed meeting
UUP (Dollar Bull) Until it closes over 26 or under 24.60 I’m neutral
Disclosure: None.