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I am showing this as my first chart in order to remind myself that my primary, longer-term market indicator is decisively negative, and that now is not the time to buy and hold stocks. I need reminding because there is so much talk in financial media about quality stocks on sale that I get tempted to buy. Of course, the problem is that we don't know how low this market can go, and stocks could get a lot cheaper still.

The PMO index in the chart below shows the short-term trend. Although the indicator is up off the low of its range, there isn't much else to confirm a short-term uptrend.

This next chart shows that selling pressure has eased enormously, with new NYSE 52-week lows down to harmless levels. That is really great news for the bulls, but the price of the SPX still looks to be coiling sideways for now. If there is a break above the downtrend line, then perhaps we can see a new short-term uptrend take place. Still, I doubt I'd jump in and go long stocks while the primary market indicator points downward as it's been doing.

Bottom Line

I'm mostly on the sidelines, and I don't see much opportunity either long or short stocks.

Meanwhile, one of the few areas of the market that is doing well is the gold miner space. However, it is a very crowded trade at the moment, meaning that everyone who wants to own gold miner stocks probably owns them by now. So be careful, because there could be a pullback over the short-term.

On the other hand, in the long-term, this chart shows the GDX near its previous highs of nearly 15 years ago. If this ETF exceeds its previous highs, it could go much higher. This chart looks very interesting.

Josh Brown on CNBC continues to talk up this sector of the market. He thinks the need to spend on cybersecurity is so critical that companies will have no choice but to spend even during a recession. He could be right. The chart doesn't look bad, even with a broken long-term uptrend line. 

Meanwhile, this Europe ETF has been showing surprising strength. I'm not a buyer, however, because if the US stock market heads lower, so will this market.

Defense stocks also seem to be doing surprisingly well.

Industrials have retraced up to heavy resistance. The long-term uptrend is intact, but a retest of the uptrend line is likely.

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is down for stock prices as of March 28.
• The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices.

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