Precious Metals: Time To Move On
The final, six-month performance of our top ten names from August 6th, with three precious metals ETFs circled (Screen capture via Portfolio Armor).
Moving On From Precious Metals
In a post last week (Silver Isn't The Next GameStop), we wrote that we were still bullish on the silver ETF SLV. We're not bullish on it anymore. We're no longer bullish on precious metals in general. Maybe you shouldn't be either. Here we explain why. First, let's consider why you might be bullish on them in the first place.
Do You Want To Make Money Or Be Right?
Bloomberg's Joe Wiesenthal touched a nerve with this tweet last week, showing that gold prices had dropped since the Georgia Senate runoffs.
Seems like we're not talking enough about the fact that gold has been tanking ever since the Georgia runoff election.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 5, 2021
Dems in complete control of government = higher deficits = bad for gold. Charts don't lie. pic.twitter.com/39F9Bz7Tqx
The reason that tweet touched a nerve is because many investors own precious metals for ideological reasons. They're into Austrian economics, they believe profligate government spending will lead to hyperinflation, etc. Maybe they'll even be right someday. But why not make some money in the meantime?
What Makes A Good Forecaster
Several years ago, we interviewed a leading Super Forecaster from Phil Tetlock's Good Judgment Project. We were reminded of that over the weekend by this tweet.
Tetlock’s study into forecasting accuracy found that the most important skill was a willingness to update ones beliefs when new information arrived
— richard shotton (@rshotton) February 7, 2021
In Think Again pic.twitter.com/ZaPjUzNGmO
When's the last time you updated your beliefs on precious metals?
Our system doesn't have beliefs, but it does update its analysis every trading day.
To what? Overvalued companies? I like how they say metals are tanking and they show a nice super short term chart. Pure propaganda, metals are in a pullback. Silver is banging off an eight year old weekly gap. The media will use every trick in the book to keep metals from taking off. Remember...The media is owned by the corporations that are in bed with the manufacturing corporations and they don't want a run on metals.
Take a look at how MSTR did yesterday - and how it's doing in the pre-market Tuesday.