Yesterday the Malls opened here. Basically nobody shopping, whereas in the 1950's during the Asian Flu nobody gave it a second thought. Sure this is different, it's more easily transmitted and so on. My point is not that we're ready to open (yes in some places, clearly not in others), but that 'fear' has been instilled in so many people, and with restrictions so demanding. That's a concern for businesses trying to survive. And it's not just travel and tourism, a sector unlikely to revive meaningfully at all, pending a therapeutic drug.

I happened to see an Italian restaurant in Winter Park (that I visit once in awhile) on TV as they opened, and 2 or 3 couples showed-up. Notably all appeared in their late 70's or 80's, actually just the category warned to not to venture out. I smiled... it's actually the generation that probably isn't as worried about longevity as younger folks. It's a family restaurant with patio and there was absolutely nobody there below Medicare age. Same with a glance at Winter Park Village (Brio or Cheesecake Factory), only older folk.

I guess it matters as the economy is in a deeper pickle if nobody goes out for pickles.

I diverged somewhat from market discussions because we all do realize we've had another thrust (expected) still within an S&P target range between the 50-DMA and 200-DMA areas. It's hard to say when it falters, but 'if' these various vaccine trials are 'really' promising, the chances not to go all the way to new lows for the 'super-cap drive' S&P, still is plausible, at the same time I'm not expecting much more upside beyond this rebound.  

Daily action was up, not impressively, but higher within the target range, and that's about what we'd have expected for Tuesday. I suspect we'll get a rougher pattern on Wednesday, maybe down to start, then rebound, but it will get tougher to hold strength as investors recognize the basis of the rise is not only super-cap strength; but somehow minimizing risks that persist. 

If we get this medical progress I'm counting on, the daily meetings, as now rumored ending in a few weeks (prematurely unless there is really a czar to take charge of the effort), of the Coronavirus Taskforce.. well then it won't be needed intensely. As this shifts to a public health program of prevention, vaccination and better working responses to the hot-spots that do flare-up, (or fail to decline), rather than so much time focused on real professionals hand-holding the media, that's fine. But somebody better be in-charge and not just 'turn it over to the governors'. The return of 'normal' CDC Briefings, without color or pressure from politicians, might well be perceived by many as a blessing, and let them focus on helping people by fighting the disease, not shamefully-skewed agenda-driven media or self-aggrandizing types. 

As it shifts, and if or as the Fed doesn't have to pull many 'rabbits out of a few remaining hats', you may see a grasp on how appropriations or shifts have just sustained things, which is all that seemed plausible for starters. It is difficult to forecast this summer, it's not difficult to see the Fed standing ready to do more. Perhaps there won't be as dramatic a shift long-term in business terms, if we get the desired pharmaceutical outcomes. If so this summer will be a transition, and then the surprise would indeed be (as I've hinted at) a better Q3 with Covid-19 receding like the Asian Flu did.  

At this point it's only an aspiration, but it's one we can all desire along with efforts on a global scale to fight the disease, and defer other confrontation (that China seems too eager to welcome behind a facade of blame games ... but it's important that our leaders not capitalize on that in a way that might prove counterproductive, even as there's time to address that later... not in a rush because some seem more interested in politics than health).

Lost amidst this has been overtures threatening Taiwan (hence reason for USS Roosevelt to resume deployment), Iran flying gold out of Venezuela, while media focuses on a botched-attempt at a mini-insurrection there), as well as oil prices firming a bit, which has actually helped overall markets.