SPX Monitoring purposes; Long 8/29/22 4030.61; sold 3990.03 on 9/2/22= loss 1%.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX monitor purposes; Neutral

The low last week did not record panic in the trin to the degree we like to see for a durable bottom. However, the tick close did have panic readings at the last low. To setup a bullish signal, both the tick and trin need to record panic readings. This week is option expiration week which has a bullish bias. So far we don’t have a setup for a bullish option expiration week. The bottom window is the 3-day average of the TRIN and readings below .60 (current reading is .53) have stalled the rally short term. We don’t expect the rally to continue much longer as not enough panic was recorded in the tick and trin combination to expect a sustainable rally. Next week is the weakest week of the year according to Seasonality. If the market does pull back next week an intermediate-term setup is possible for a rally into yearend.

It's usually not a good sign for the market when the VIX is up when the SPY is also up and that happened today. Usually, the SPX trades opposite the VIX and when both are up then there is a divergence and divergence occurs near a reversal in the market. The third window up from the bottom is the VVIX/VIX ratio which helps to define the trend for the SPX and today it turned down. There are divergences present.

Last Thursday we showed the bullish setup for the weekly RSI for the GDX/GLD ratio. Intermediate-term bottoms formed when the weekly RSI for the GDX/GLD ratio fell below 30. The weekly RSI for this ratio on September 2 closed at 26.94. Above is another longer-term bullish setup which is the daily RSI for the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio. Intermediate lows are found when the RSI for this ratio falls below 30 and then closes above 30 for the buy signal. This chart goes back to mid-2014 which showed 10 signals were produced with one failure in late 2016 which works out to a 90% success rate. The stage is set for a rally to start at any time.

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