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The market-leading stocks have continued to push the major indexes higher, while the majority of stocks continued their consolidation of the gains from November and December. The PMO index, as shown below, appears to be well off the lows of its range, but it hasn't been able to reach up to the highs of its range.

This means that less than half of all stocks have been experiencing upward momentum. In addition, the momentum indicator has leveled out for the NYSE common-stock-only index and looks to be confirming the stalled appearance of the PMO index. In other words, the leading stocks are in a short-term uptrend, but the majority of stocks are not.

Maybe there is a chance that the broader market will start to move higher along with the leaders in the coming week, because there was a tick higher for the bullish percents of the two major exchanges on Friday. Of course, it isn't much yet.

It has been widely reported that the SPX has been surging higher and hit the 5000 level this past week, but less reported is that the SPX equal-weight has barely budged this year. However, this chart appears quite bullish to me, and it looks ready to start moving higher. This is a bullish indicator.

New 52-week lows were quite elevated on Monday for some reason. I forget now what the news was. But since then, new lows on the NYSE have settled down nicely to harmless levels. Nasdaq new lows are still a bit elevated, which I suspect is at least partly a result of the inverted yield curve.

Bottom Line

I'm not sure exactly how much cash I have at the moment, but I think it is about 15%. I'd like to put that remaining cash to work, but I would feel better if I waited to deploy the cash until I get the next signal of a confirmed short-term uptrend.

I apologize for not having a post last week. I wrote it, but there was a bad storm in California that day and the internet went down, causing me to lose half of the post.

Meanwhile, a strong jobs report along with generally good economic news pushed longer-term yields up off their lows last week, but some very nice inflation data has been helping keep yields from pushing too high, at least for now. If yields remain at these levels, it would favor higher stock prices.

The 2-year yield has been inching higher lately, which leads me to think that the Federal Reserve will not be lowering rates soon -- at least, not by much. That means that if we are to expect the yield curve to normalize, then longer-term yields will need to rise.

The building and construction ETF broke out very nicely this past week. This is a bullish indicator. The home builders ETF really looks ready to break higher, too.

Technology stocks have been wild this year, and this past week was all about semiconductors. Actually, it is the leading semiconductor companies that have been really pushing the SOXX index higher, but the strength is starting to broaden out into some of the companies that haven't moved as much yet. Technology continues to look so good that it has been getting compared to the late 1990's.

This is the chart I like to use to show the larger trend of the market, and it continues to point convincingly upwards.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to be very strong, and it seemingly suggests the potential of economic growth in the next four to six months.

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is uncertain for stock prices at the moment.
• The ECRI Weekly Leading Index points to economic recovery as of July 2023.
• The medium-term trend is up for Treasury bond prices as of November 2023 (yields down, prices up).

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