It seems like we’ve been talking about the IYR analog since John Kennedy was in office. This thing moves so damn slowly. The flip side is that if the pattern does complete, the move will likewise be powerful and persistent.

As a reminder, the “analog” actually doesn’t exist anymore, but only because the recent topping pattern is so much better than what took place pre-Covid. The trio of exponential moving averages is definitely behaving itself properly.

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If we take a closer look, we can see that these three lines are finally aligned with a bearish outcome. I’ve been tracking this setup for literally months, and I daresay it will take most of the rest of 2022 to play out.

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A big reason, of course, is that interest rates are going absolutely bonkers. SlopeCharts has access to hundreds of interest rate charts, but one simple way to see just how dramatic the change has been is to look at TBT, the ultra-short-on-bonds fund. As TLT has been withering away, TBT has been thriving, which is all the more extraordinary since leveraged funds typically erode so much due to their nature.

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