Historic Dividend Outperformance

In pulling up our Trend Analyzer tool, one thing that is clear when looking at US thematic ETFs is where the damage has been done during the latest correction. For year to date performance, the biggest losers are now mostly growth factors, whereas low volatility and dividend focused ETFs are actually still in the green so far in 2025. Of course, dividend ETFs have a variety of methodologies. Some ETFs only have holdings with the highest yields, whereas others focus on quality of dividends, placing preference on things such as dividend growth and longevity. One of the most well-known dividend strategies is owning Dividend Aristocrats, of which the NOBL ETF tracks.  Dividend Aristocrats only includes stocks that have raised their dividend payments for a minimum of 25 straight years.

In the 5 years since the COVID Crash low, growth stocks have been the primary driver of the market, especially since the start of the AI boom beginning in late 2022.  However, the performance of the Dividend Aristocrats has still been respectable. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 (SPY) has gained 167% versus the 117% total return for the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).  Looking more recently, NOBL actually peaked ahead of the market in late November compared to the mid-February high for the broader market.  Since their respective 52-week highs, NOBL is down a smaller 5.6% versus 7.12% for SPY.  Additionally, looking only at the past month's more tumultuous period since the S&P 500's 2/19 high, NOBL is down only 0.5% to the S&P 500's 7% drop.


In other words, even though they peaked earlier and are down only slightly less from highs, as designed, the Dividend Aristocrats have been much less volatile during the latest stock market rough patch.

While the qualification to be included in the Dividend Aristocrats is to have raised dividend payments for at least 25 years, at the moment the 69 holdings in NOBL have on a median basis raised dividends for 42 consecutive years. In the table below, we show those members that have posted the largest gains year to date in addition to their market caps, current dividend yield (and whether that is a larger or smaller yield than the S&P 500), and length of raised dividends.  As shown, utility-provider Con Ed (ED) is up the most with a year-to-date gain of 20.6% while boasting a dividend yield that is more than twice as large as the S&P.  It has also passed the half century mark for increased dividends.  Other notable Aristocrats that are up more than 10% year-to-date include Chevron (CVX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), and IBM.  You can view a tear sheet that lists all of NOBL's holdings and the number of years in a row that each of them has raised dividends at this PDF.


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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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