SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX 1/2/24 at 4742.83.

Our Gain since 1/1/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12% and SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38. We made 8 SPX trades with one loss and 7 wins in 2023.

Above is the daily SPY. The SPY was up 5 days in a row going into the 12/28/23 high. Five up days in a row predict the market will be higher within five days 83% of the time. The bottom window is the 10-day TRIN which stands at 1.20 as of Friday’s close. Ten days TRINS of 1.20 and higher shows there is panic in the market and panic forms at lows. It appears the market is near a short-term low. Long SPX on 1/2/24 at 4742.83

The middle window is the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio. This chart goes back to mid 2016. We noted with blue arrows the times when the weekly SPY was making higher highs and the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio was making higher lows which is a bearish divergence. This divergence was suggesting the SPY was nearing an intermediate-term high (which it was). Currently, the weekly SPY is making higher highs and the weekly VIX/VVIX ratio is making lower lows which suggests a positive divergence for the SPY in the coming months. 

The bottom window is the daily GDX and the next higher window is the Sprott physical gold Trust (premium/discount price). The premium/discount price measures the price of purchasing of the Sprott GoldTrust. Right now one can buy the Sprott gold Trust at a 2.13% discount. Previous times when the discount as been 2% or less, GDX has been near a low (marked with dotted red lines). Seasonality is bullish starting in mid-December and running to mid-January. Evidence suggests there is more room to the upside for GDX over the next couple of weeks.

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