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This is a big week for data concerning the consumer. 

PCE is coming out Friday.
Tariffs remain a political football.
The Fed did not lower rates. 

And, from a technical standpoint, XRT, our Granny has the most to gain and to lose. 

On the Daily chart, while XRT plays catchup to the SPY, it has yet to outperform since, well, for a very long time. 

The phase after the death cross, is bearish. 

XRT is well below the January calendar range low, even on this bounce. 

And the real motion momentum shows a mean reversion, but momentum still quite weak. 

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On the weekly chart, the best we can say is that Monday’s action is still within the range of the huge sell off 2 weeks ago. 

A move above 71.42 would reverse that week’s damage. 

Momentum remains better on the weekly timeframe, but marginally. 

And even if XRT clears that bearish bar, it still must get back over the green moving average or the 200-WMA 

On the monthly chart… 

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With 5 trading days left for March and the 1st quarter, the current price trades under the 23-month moving average. 

Why is this significant? 

Should XRT struggle to close out the month back above the blue line, it will indicate the consumer and consumer spending is in a 2-year business cycle contraction. 

And that is after XRT has seen expansion since December 2023. 

If XRT cannot hold here, after 2 and ½ years of consumer confidence and optimism, it will be quite clear that has changed. 

Of course, with 5 days left, we can be hopeful… 

For now, hopeful means patience  

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