Election Week 2024 Recap
The S&P 500 came into this week having its best Election Year through October since 1936, and the gains have only continued with SPY currently up another 4.7% week-to-date. Below is a helpful look at the performance of various asset classes this week using our "Key ETF Matrix," which also includes year-to-date and bull market total returns.
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The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slightly outperformed SPY this week, but it's the small-cap Russell 2,000 (IWM) that's done the best of the major index ETFs with a gain of 8.22%.Small-caps outperformed mid-caps this week, which themselves outperformed large-caps.Generally speaking, growth outperformed value, although small-cap value (IJS) is doing much better than large-cap growth.
Looking at sectors, Financials, Energy, and Industrials were the best-performing sectors on the day after the election, but Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is now the best-performing sector of the week with a gain of 7.44%.Consumer Discretionary has Tesla (TSLA) to thank for its big gain since the stock was up 30% this week and has re-joined the "Trillion Dollar Market Cap" club.On the flip side, the two most defensive sectors -- Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) -- have seen the smallest bounce of the major sectors with gains of roughly 1%.
International stock market ETFs traded on US exchanges did not participate in the post-election rally.The MSCI All-World ex-US ETF (CWI) was only up 16 basis points on the week as of Friday afternoon, and European country ETFs like France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) were all down more than 1%.Commodity ETFs didn't do much either, with the broad commodity ETF (DBC) up just 0.6% and both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) solidly red.
The outperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world has pushed Bloomberg's index showing US market cap as a share of world market cap to its highest level this century at 49.5%.You can see this week's bounce in US market share in the chart below:
With markets up so much this week, things have quickly gotten extended.As shown below in the snapshot of key index ETFs from our Trend Analyzer tool, all of them are currently trading more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages, which we call "extreme overbought" territory.
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As of mid-day Friday, the average Russell 3,000 stock was up 6.7% on the week.Roughly 30% of stocks in the index were up more than 10% on the week, 177 stocks were up more than 20%, and 15 stocks surged more than 50%.Below is a look at the 15 stocks up 50%+ on the week.
Most of the stocks up 50%+ shown above are small-caps, so below is a look at the 25 best-performing stocks this week with market caps of more than $10 billion:
Given Elon Musk's very vocal campaign to help President Trump win re-election, it should come as no surprise that Tesla (TSLA) reacted positively to Trump's victory.Back in late April, TSLA was down more than 40% year-to-date, but it has now rallied more than 120% off its lows and is up 28% YTD. As shown below, TSLA shares are up 30% since Tuesday's close before that night's election results.
Tesla's move this week allows it to re-join the "Trillion Dollar Market Cap" club along with Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVIDIA (NVDA).Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) also joined that club Friday with a market cap right at the trillion-dollar mark.As shown below, early 2022 was the last time TSLA had a $1+ trillion market cap.
Another insane move this week has been in a little-known closed-end fund called the Destiny Tech 100 (DXYZ). DXYZ has surged 170% since Tuesday's close, which puts it 465% above its net asset value (NAV)! Why, you may ask?Well, DXYZ owns stakes in private companies, the biggest of those being SpaceX. On Destiny's website, it shows SpaceX making up just over 37% of the fund.We recommend reading this Morningstar article to learn more about DXYZ. This is NOT something to mess around with unless you have extensive knowledge about closed-end funds and how they work.We are simply highlighting its move as an example of some of the craziness that has gone on in markets since Election Day.
In addition to Tesla (TSLA) and DXYZ, the two main private prison stocks -- Geo Group (GEO) and Corecivic (CXW) -- have also seen huge buying since Tuesday, with GEO up 67% and CXW up 64%.These two companies make their money housing prisoners and illegal aliens for local, state, and federal agencies.With crime, immigration, and the border on top of President-elect Trump's to-do list, investors are betting that GEO and CXW stand to benefit.
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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...
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