Commitment Of Traders, Hedge Fund Positions - As Of March 5

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2019.

10-year noteCurrently net short 233.4k, down 619.

The rally in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.63 percent) from July 2016, when rates bottomed at 1.34 percent, ended last October at 3.25 percent.  By December, a rising trend line from that low was lost. Support at 2.62 percent goes back a decade.  This has been defended several times this year.  Downside risks are rising.  A decisive breakdown raises the odds that in due course the 10-year heads toward two percent.

30-year bondCurrently net short 30.2k, down 4.5k.

Major economic releases next week are as follows.

Retail sales for January are due out Monday.  Sales dropped 1.2 percent month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $505.8 billion.

On Tuesday, the NFIB small-business index and the consumer price index – both for February – are published.

  • Small-business optimism fell 3.2 points m/m in January to 101.2.  This was the 26th consecutive month of 100-plus readings, of which last August’s 108.8 was the record.
  • Consumer prices were unchanged m/m in January and rose 1.6 percent in the 12 months to January.  In the same period, core CPI increased 0.2 percent and 2.15 percent respectively.

Wednesday brings the producer price index (February) and durable goods (January).

  • Producer prices in January dipped 0.1 percent m/m and rose two percent year-over-year.  In the 12 months through January, core PPI rose two percent and 2.6 percent respectively.

December orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capex plans – rose two percent y/y to $68.2 billion (SAAR).  Growth has rapidly decelerated since last July’s 8.8-percent pace.

January’s new home sales is on tap Thursday.  Sales rose 3.7 percent m/m in December to 621,000 units (SAAR).  A decade-high 712,000 was recorded in November 2017.

Industrial production (February), JOLTS (January), University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (March, preliminary) and Treasury International Capital data (January) are scheduled for Friday.

Growth in capacity utilization decelerated to 1.6 percent y/y in December to 78.2 percent.  Last November’s 78.9 percent was the highest since December 2014.

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Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed here constitutes an offer to buy or sell any ...

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