Breaking Out To New Highs In A Remarkable Rally

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The remarkable stock market rally continues. The breakout to new highs is intact, the uptrend line is holding, and the number of NYSE new 52-week lows remains at harmless levels.

The 21-day EMA of the SPX continues to be respected, and the five-day average of total net new highs/new lows remains in the black.

Both of the major exchanges are also respecting their 21-day EMAs, and the Nasdaq is ticking higher with consistency and a surprising lack of volatility.

The two most important ETFs, which contain the market's leading stocks, continue to look very good, although there is just a little weakness showing in the semiconductors as the price of the SOXX ETF tests its 21-day moving average.

The price of the junk bond ETF has also pushed to new highs, along with stocks.

The short-term trend for the general market turned lower on July 11, even though leading stocks continued to push higher. It appears that the short-term downtrend is now over, and the general market has switched to a short-term uptrend.

The major exchanges seem to be confirming the short-term uptrend.

The percent of stocks above their 50-day averages hasn't changed much, despite the new uptrend. This is a little confusing -- and disappointing.

The same goes for the bullish percents. The Nasdaq has been showing some incredible consistency.


Bottom Line

This is a bull market, and it feels unstoppable right now. I'm not getting in the way, and I'm letting my stocks run higher. However, I'm as aware as anyone else that there will, at some point, be an end to this run-up in prices, and I want to protect profits as best as possible when the time comes. I'm fully invested in top-quality stocks that are hitting new highs, but I'm ready to hit the sell button when the time comes.

Meanwhile, it isn't just US stocks that are doing well. Stocks all over the globe are performing well, as shown by this chart of the global AD line. This is a bullish indicator.

Inflation-sensitive stocks are moving sharply higher, as shown by the Pring Index in the chart below. I think this reflects general, global economic strength. 

The XME ETF holds some of the most inflation-sensitive stocks, and it only looks to be tearing higher.

Interestingly, the commodity ETF DBC continues to trade sideways while commodity-related stocks surge to new highs. This doesn't seem quite right.

Construction-related stocks also look really good at the moment, and it seems like the PKB ETF could be poised for new highs.

This ETF, which holds retail stocks, also seems ready to aim for a new high.

The financials ETF hit new highs a few weeks ago, and the breakout is now holding and looks good.

This next ETF is very interesting. The breakout looks good, and there are several stocks I haven't heard of before within the fund.


Outlook Summary

  • The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of July 24
  • The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices 

More By This Author:

A Short-Term Uptrend In A Cooling Market
A Negative For The Market
Improvement In A Shortened Trading Week

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. I am a private investor and blogger. The comments below reflect my view of the market and indicate what I am doing with my own accounts. The ...

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James Hanshaw 1 month ago Contributor's comment
How to do you know when "the sell time comes"'