Biotech Stocks Poised For Another Big Move In Q4

By Rod Raynovitch of Raygent.com
Monday, October 7, 2024 1:47 PM EDT

Biotech Stocks Poised For Q4 Rally with SMID Caps

Playbook Summary:

  • Investors should assess their risk appetite given the geopolitical turmoil and current market metrics. A core life science portfolio position would be large cap biopharmas paying dividends and with good growth prospects: ABBV, GILD, LLY, PFE etc. offer value plus growth;OR buy a diversified life science fund weighted toward large caps: FBIOX, JNGLX and PRHSX.
  • Traders can watch for momentum tilting toward ETFs weighted in SMID Caps: ARKG, IBB and XBI.
  • Healthcare sector is lagging MTD  because of recent blow-ups with CVS and HUM, but UNH remains a hold. The healthcare sector can be a safe haven if volatility increases.

Biotech Stocks are cruising in the slow lane wide the XBI at the 97 level but nimble investors are making money now with stocks in volatile momentum markets.Here is a brief summary of last week”s action with our recent SMID trading list YTD:

(Click on image to enlarge)


Take-aways and what to watch this week:

  1. Best performing stocks YTD with strong RSI’s (>50): ADPT, CPRX,  CRMD, DNLI, ILMN, NTRA, NVAX, RNA, RZLT, TEM, VCYT.
  2. Watch for upgrades and news that boosts stocks.
  3. If all three ETFs rise (ARKG,IBB, XBI)-an extremely bullish signal- then buy XBI or one or more of these stocks.
  4. Small cap ETFs IWM, IGR still lag the market so hinders SMID biotech performance ..
  5. M&A, licensing deals and product breakthroughs have a boosting effect on these stocks.

Illumina (ILMN) was a new pick last week in the $141range.

(Click on image to enlarge)


Momentum for biotech stocks is currently neutral.

NOTES on this momentum driven model. Stock picks were screened for cash, technology, analyst coverage and RSI. Most of these companies are not profitable although some have revenue growth.

                        10/5/24 %YTD %MTD      
                                   
                                   
COMPANY Tocker                                
            P       P % P % % MCAP RSI  
    P 1/20/23 Initial 2/4/23   12/24/23   YTD %   4/8/24 % 10/5/24 YTD MTD $B    
Adaptive BiioTech ADPT     4.11   5       2.6 -46.94 5.52 12.65 26.9 0.814 66.7  
Acumen Therap ABOS     5.29   3.57   -33.89   3.17 -17.45 2.37 -38.28 -1.25 0.124 43.2  
Avidity Sciences RNA new 7/1/24             25   47.3 422.65 13.4 5.59 59.3  
Catalyst Pharma CPRX     16.1   16.58   -10.86   14.89 11.42 20 18.98 0.45 2.37 51  
Caribou Biosci CRBU     6.29   6.17   -0.175   3.71 -35.25 1.87 -67.36 -1.58 0.169 44.67  
CorMedix CRMD         3.9       5.31 41.22 8.9 136.7 55 0.497 81.2  
Crenetics CRNX                 42.12 18.38 53.14 49.35 0.64 4.25 41.93  
CRSPR Therap CRSP 49.61 -25 55.27   63.67   56.63   53.91 -13.88 45.37 -27.52 0.76 3.86 41.93  
Cryoport CYRX 21.75 -42.34 25.24   16.09   -7.26   16.38 5.75 7.89 -49 -7.83 0.39 44  
Cytokinetics CYTK         31       65.34 -21.74 56.68 -32 3.26 6.67 59.55  
Denali DNLI     22           19.21 -9 28.63 33.41 13.79 4.1 54.3  
Exelixis EXEL     22.25           23.75 -1.21 26.66 11.13 4.1 7.6 56.8  
Evolent Health EVH 30.83 13.74 31.96   32.08   14.25   27.65 -16.29 26.34 -20.25 -12.26 3.06 36.67  
Geron GERN 3.19 9.24 3.22   2.29   -5.37   3.79 79.62 4.32 104.74 0.7 2.6 44.78  
Humacyte HUMA new* 8/1/24 8.25               5.44 91.55 -4.39 651 45.79  
Ilumina ILMN new 10/4/24                 141.43 4.42 9.99 22.53 64.54  
Intelllia NTLA                 25.5   17.99 -41 -15.42 1.83 31.61  
Immatics IMTX     9.3   9.9   13.66   10 -4.94 10.86 3.13 -3.38 1.12 39.52  
Natera NTRA         60       91.66 46.33 129.84 107.28 14.66 16.06 59.94  
Pacific Biosci PACB 11.29 55.68 11.58   8.59   5   1.47 -85 1.72 -82.47 30.3 0.469 51.8  
Novavax NVAX                 3.67 – 13.61 183.5 14.66 2.18 54.13  
Quidel-Ortho QDEL new 9/16/24 44               43.77 -40.61 8.45 2.94 48.17  
Recursion Pharm RXRX         10.75       8.12 -17.65 6.11 -38 -0.16 1.72 38.75  
Rezolute RZLT new 7/8/24 4.25               4.93 396.5 4.89 0.273 53.18  
Roivant ROIV         11.4       11.03 -1.78 11.38 1.34 -3.15 8.42 42.27  
Supernus SUPN 40.3 12.3 41.61   29.23   -18.05   30.07 3.9 32.02 10.64 -8.51 1.76 50.67  
Tempest AI TEM new 7/10/24 52               52.94 31.5 -1.48 8.17 51.53  
Twist Biosci TWST     18   3.76   34.03   31.54 -14.53 43.34 17.58 9.58 2.54 43.34  
10x Genomics TXG     47.84   56.58   55.27   27.59 -50.79 20 -64.22 12.46 2.41 41.31  
                                   
Vericel VCEL     31   34.75   31.93   46.05 29.32 43.36 21.76 -9.61 2.13 45.24  
Veracyte VCYT 24.89 39.43 26.67   28.27   19.13   19.31 -29.81 32.84 19.311.13 5.53 2.52 52.83  
                                   
SPDR Biotech XBI 86.99 14.75 90.39   87.62   5.57   83.49 -6.51 97.51 9.21 -1.03   44.19  
iShares BIO IBB         133.77   -1.89   132.51 -2.48 143.9 5.93 -1.1   45.31  
HealthcareSPDR XLV         135.02   –   143.22 5.02 151.64 1.19 -3.19      
iShares MedTEch IHI         53.65   57.3   6.17 55.79 58.01 7.49 -1.09      
                                   
ArkGenomics ARKG     35.28   32.81   16.22   23.18 -29.35 24.86 -24.23 –      
                                   
T.RowePrice PRHSX         86.84   -3.32   92.49 5.22 98.82 12.42 -2.27      
FidoSelBiotech FBIOX         1763           20.98 17.67 0.38      
FIdoMedTech FSMEX         61.77       64.23   67.01 8.15 0.87      
JANUS Life Sci JNGLX                     79.33 14.75 -3.33

More By This Author:

Biotech Stocks : Are You A Trader Or A Longer Term Investor?
A Biotech Breakout Will Be Led By Small Caps
Biotech And Life Science Sector Update Summer Of 2024
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