Photo by Timothy Newman on Unsplash

After stabilizing in the $87-$94 range for a little over a month, oil prices have declined further over the past several days. As of this morning they were in the $82/barrel range. The year-to-date graph via CNBC below shows that they have now completely reversed the Ukraine invasion increase that began in February (perhaps linked to Ukraine’s counteroffensive of the past week?):

Typically, gas prices follow oil prices with a delay of several weeks. As shown above, oil prices peaked in early June, and gas prices at mid-month. So here is a nine-month graph, via GasBuddy, of gas prices:

The declines in gas price declines slowed down a couple of weeks after those of oil. As of this morning, nationwide gas prices averaged $3.72. Just before the Ukraine invasion, gas prices averaged about $3.50/gallon. If oil prices hold in this new, lower range, we could see gas prices back at that level in several weeks.

This in turn would support more consumer spending, a pop in consumer confidence, and in Biden’s approval rating - as well as another good month on the consumer price index front.

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