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“Davidson” submits:

Employment increased much more than expectations of 170,000 for the Establishment Survey. The positioning has remained by some institutions for a pending recession which as yet do arrive with expectations of multiple rate cuts and falling rates for 5yr-10yr Treasuries. Employment reports for the last 2yrs have stubbornly refused to accommodate this perspective with the overly-favored Mag7 i.e, top-owned high tech, issues treading water since Dec 2021. The rest of businesses have been almost ignored even as they posted revenue growth and profitability well beyond expectations.

The Self-Employed continue to diminish by being absorbed into the Establishment group of companies that make up this series. Net/net employment continues to expand confirming an expansionary economy despite bouts of record pessimism and historic bets made against higher equity prices through various strategies.

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