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Davidson” submits:

The headlines persist in declaring a current manufacturing recession. The referenced indicator is PMI shown in Manufacturing Employment vs. Mfg Ind… from Jan 1972. The recessions are indicated by the gray columns and the benchmark of —PMI @50 is the level below which many forecast recession and above which they believe indicates economic expansion. Lost in translation is the fact that forecasters have called for recession using the PMI many more times than they have occurred. The call today is we are in a manufacturing recession since Nov 2022 when the PMI last fell below 50. The problem with this perception is the combination of Manufacturing Employment (___ Black Line) and the Mfg Ind Production Index (—– Dark Blue Line) that do not support the PMI as an indication of anything other than investor sentiment, having zero use as an economic indicator.

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