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Anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that wasn’t possible. He won’t find $1 trillion either.

The New “Epic” Outcome

The New York Post reports Elon Musk concedes DOGE unlikely to find $2 trillion in budget cuts — but here’s what would be an ‘epic outcome’

Billionaire Elon Musk has walked back a prior claim that his vaunted blue ribbon commission on government bloat and inefficiencies would be able to slash the roughly $6.75 trillion annual federal budget by $2 trillion.

Musk, 53, explained that the $2 trillion goal he floated on the campaign trail was merely the “best-case outcome” and admitted that he believes there may only be a “good shot” at achieving just half of that.

“I think we’ll try for $2 trillion, I think that’s like the best-case outcome,” Musk told Stagwell CEO Mark Penn during an X Spaces conversation. “If you try for $2 trillion you have a good shot at getting $1 [trillion].

“So that, I think, would be an epic outcome.” 

Yes, That Would Be Epic

The “new” epic outcome would require cutting $1 trillion out of $1 trillion in discretionary non-defense spending or cutting defense spending that Trump wants to dramatically increase.

I have seen people claim discretionary spending is$2.774 trillion, but they arrive at that nonsensical number by labeling $889 interest on the debt as discretionary.

Not defaulting is in fact the number one priority.

Cutting $1 Trillion Out of $1 Trillion

Musk says that if we aim for $2 trillion we have a chance for $1 trillion. Why not aim for $6 trillion and settle for $3 trillion?

No matter. Let’s presume DOGE can cut $1 trillion by aiming for $2 trillion.

Voila! The entire non-discretionary non-military budget is now zero.

Reflections on Discretionary Spending Cuts

The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) budget for fiscal year (FY) 2025 is $9.7 billion, the budget for Homeland Security is $64.8 billion, the budget for the FBI is $11.3 billion, the budget for the justice department is $37.8 billion and the budget for national intelligence is $73.4 billion.

Those items total $197 billion. Trump also wants more for the wall and mass deportations. Trump may need another 10,000 ICE agents even if his goal is a modest one to two million deportations.

Q: Wait a second Mish, didn’t you cut those expenses totally?
A: Yes. I cut 100% of discretionary spending.

But some of those are areas where Trump wants to increase discretionary spending.

Can DOGE Cut $2 Trillion Out of $1 Trillion?

On December 27, I asked the seemingly nonsensical question Can DOGE Cut $2 Trillion Out of $1 Trillion?

The answer to the first question is obvious. So let’s discuss what’s reasonable.

Unlike DOGE, I did balance the budget but it took some hard work.

I threw away Trump’s majorly expensive TCJA extension, cut military spending, and assumed a near-miraculous $630 billion in DOGE cuts (or other revenue increases wherever DOGE failed).

I will revise my proposal with more details as soon as I can find some more time.

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