Sentiment Down 46%, Confidence Down 25% Relative To Pandemic Eve
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Sentiment Index (blue), and Conference Board Confidence Index (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan via FRED, Conference Board via investing.com, and NBER.
Why do the two series differ? As shown in this post, in a mechanical sense, it’s the different weights associated with inflation and unemployment, with the Conference Board series putting greater weight on unemployment.
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