Rocky Road is more than an ice cream flavor, as numerous potholes threaten the lateral stability of a seemingly-rangebound market at a relatively high level.

The market's staggering January decline and subsequent February rebound did indeed start running into trouble around the 'Ides of March'; then shuffled without resolution to this very moment (off the rebound highs but not dramatically, yet). I was not surprised; in fact our forecasts (while not exciting, were generally correct over these two weeks) called the sell-the-news (or comments) on the FOMC as well as the Quarterly Expiration, and then suspected choppy 'irresolute' behavior both last week, and even into this week, with the actual Quarter's-end coming.

That doesn't mean this 'relative' calm won't come to an earlier end. Especially as everyone will be focused on Chair Yellen's remarks Tuesday; and Bill Dudley's, New York Fed President, later in the week. Fed Presidents have confused lots of the thinking among those strategists who believe nothing but monetary policy matters; and for several years that has been a major influencing factor (always is but the 'control' central banks here and abroad have seems to be waning).

Technically, the market is encountering more than headwinds; it's contemplating how earnings might actually matter in the context of slow (or just sloppy) global economic activity, as well as realization that GDP (again lowered today by the Atlanta Now measure, which was just lowered days ago). Growth measured by spending has simply evaporated with revisions seen now; and markets fight this by hoping that all we need is more dovish talk by the Fed Chair. If we get that (if so she will be in opposition to those who contradicted her last week; or today a Dallas Fed head who reinforced her), you might get an intraweek rally; but care should be taken; as such a move should be viewed as a 'sell the news' Fed yak yet-again. Last time she lifted the market for a few hours; this time maybe less.

Today the 'revelation' comes that the terrorist web in Europe is wider than any of the authorities imagined. I personally seriously doubt that; especially since we'd had comments to that directly, by the French President days before Brussels got attacked. Even ISIS (they are monsters, but actually don't lie too much) claimed they had infiltrated hundreds of terrorists into Europe mixed-in with refugees; so after a report we shared of it being something like 400 commando's from Syria, we don't know why anyone is surprised. Given the free-travel zones; finding the existence of a web that stretches from Spain to Sweden; or from Italy, Germany or the Netherlands, isn't surprising, and is what many have thought all along. So much for the 'social-media' activated or 'lone-wolf' arguments by certain nation's leaders who obviously don't want to panic their citizens, but tread too lightly both in terms of actions (about like using eye drops when laser surgery is needed) or in the need to motivate citizens to galvanize support to reverse the trend.

This matters to markets; not just because of obvious reluctance to travel; or for that matter, pricing pressures as a result of transportation snafus in Europe from the last few weeks forward. It also puts financial pressure on police authorities, as well as NATO military augmentation, at a time when it's hardest to do so. And we are basically arriving at the point-in-time where decisions must be made as to handling influxes of more refugees (that may ease if the ceasefire holds, as it is so far, whether or not there's been a quiet subtle cooperation by Turkey some contend, to facilitate even more migrants getting into central Europe).

During times of stress, people focus more on essentials; less on consumption. I think you see that in Europe; and we can already chart it here in the USA. Now, if one presumes (and we don't) that global economic activity would be stronger if not for the geopolitical issues, you still have an overpriced stock market, more in the U.S. than Europe; though it's not cheap. If you presume slower growth (as I do), then you have the case for perhaps a more dovish monetary policy (wrong however for different reasons we've often addressed), but also lower stocks.

Buybacks winding-down for a blackout time were a point here a week ago; valid too. Their absence (or even a trickle returning) won't help much against terrible forward earnings guidance, and mediocre reports for the Quarter just ending as we get into April. And remember; April and May is when I expect renewed risk.

In sum:  the light roller-coaster ride amidst the warning signs we've seen hasn't changed much over the past couple weeks. The Dollar can strength anew a bit; which presses stocks, softens Oil, and impacts any optimistic multinational firm's earnings improvement dreams.

The earlier highs in Tokyo often precede a U.S. S&P peak by about this duration while Transports and Financials are both soft and giving a defensive sign as well so you just aren't going to get good fundamentals in this environment.

While the tacticians focus on Fed-speak this week (and markets will react); that really is looking at the trees, not the forest. Views at odds with Yellen are curious but not determinate. Dudley on Thursday might be the most important of these. But if one asks whether I'm thinking all of this is the swan-song of the churning in the wake of the rebound, and setting-up for retreats ahead; yes that's more or less the bottom-line.