ASIA:

China has been busy cultivating at least two new coal markets, Mozambique and South Africa, and expanding trade with smaller exporters, including Kazakhstan, Myanmar and Colombia. Cultivation has been underway since the start of the year, as domestic demand for coal-fired power rises acutely amid an electricity crunch and ban on the commodity from Australia. China’s power shortage reached crisis point last month, with both households and the industrial sector asked to cut usage. In February, China imported nearly 200,000 tonnes of coal, mostly “other bituminous coal,” which can be used for energy production. It also imported bituminous coking coal, which is used in steel making.

The Indian economy is expected to grow at 9.1 % in the financial year 2021-22 (FY22), industry body FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey mentioned on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) projection marks a marginal improvement from the growth forecast of 9% recorded in its previous survey in July. According to the FICCI survey, the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2% for FY22. Industry and services sectors are projected to grow by 12.9% and 8.6%, respectively, during the year, the chamber said. This survey was conducted in September and drew responses of economists from industry, banking, and financial services sectors.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 149.34 or 0.54% to 27,678.21
• Shanghai closed
• Hang Seng increased 735.24 or 3.07% to 24,701.73
• ASX 200 increased 50.20 points or 0.70% to 7,256.70
• Kospi increased 51.15 points or 1.76% to 2,959.46
• SENSEX increased 488.10 points or 0.82% to 59,677.83
• Nifty50 increased 144.35 points or 0.82% to 17,790.35

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00343 or 0.47% to 0.73159
• NZDUSD increased 0.00183 or 0.26% to 0.69345
• USDJPY increased 0.2 or 0.18% to 111.58
• USDCNY decreased 0.00384 or -0.06% to 6.45204

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 4.63 USD/t oz. or -0.26% to 1,757.85
• Silver increased 0.027 USD/t. oz or 0.12% to 22.621

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Foreign Bonds Buying increased from 439.5B to 1,189.4B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from -228.5B to -334.3B

Foreign Reserves (USD) (Sep) decreased from 1,424.3B to 1,409.3B

South Korea:

Current Account (Aug) decreased from 8.21B to 7.51B

Australia:

AIG Services Index (Sep) increased from 45.6 to 45.7

Indonesia:

FX Reserves (USD) (Sep) increased from 144.80B to 146.90B

Some economic news from today:

China:

FX Reserves (USD) (Sep) decreased from 3.232T to 3.201T

Japan:

Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Aug) decreased from -0.2% to -2.9%

Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) decreased from -0.1% to -2.3%

Leading Index decreased from 104.1 to 101.8

Hong Kong:

Foreign Reserves (USD) (Sep) decreased from 497.10B to 495.00B

Singapore:

Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 418.1B to 416.8B

EUROPE/EMEA:

European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said that a sudden, sharp rise in eurozone inflation may prove durable if workers start expecting higher prices and demand wage increases. Speaking to Eurostat Schnabel confirmed again ECB’s official line that a spike in prices, which are estimated to have risen 3.4% year on year in September would subside next year. But other groups of policymakers along with Schnabel flagged the risk that this may not happen. Accounts of the ECB’s latest policy meeting showed on Thursday that policymakers had already started worrying about upside risks when they met on Sept 8-9.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) said Spain’s GDP rose 1.1 percent in the second quarter – not nearly as much as trailed in its July estimate of 2.8 percent. The statisticians said household consumption rose sharply by 4.7 percent thanks to a partial easing of restrictions linked to the coronavirus pandemic, but that was still less than the 6.6 percent hoped for. They also revised their figure for the first quarter of the year for the worse, saying GDP dropped by 0.6 percent instead of the 0.4 percent initially reported.

The major European stock markets had a green day:

• CAC 40 increased 107.07 points or 1.65% to 6,600.19
• FTSE 100 increased 82.17 points or 1.17% to 7,078.04
• DAX 30 increased 277.53 points or 1.85% to 15,250.86

The major European currency markets had a green day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00001 or 0.00% to 1.15546
• GBPUSD increased 0.00346 or 0.25% to 1.36243
• USDCHF increased 0.00067 or 0.07% to 0.92832

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep) decreased from 2.9% to 2.8%

Germany:

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 1.3% to -4.0%

Norway:

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.6% to 2.2%

France:

French Current Account (Aug) increased from -3.40B to -1.30B

French Exports (Aug) increased from 40.8B to 42.3B

French Imports (Aug) increased from 47.9B to 49.0B

French Reserve Assets Total (Sep) decreased from 213.930M to 213.268.0M

French Trade Balance (Aug) increased from -7.1B to -6.7B

Italy:

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 6.7% to 1.9%

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.3% to 0.4%

UK:

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.8% to 1.7%

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) increased from 7.2% to 7.4%

Labour Productivity (Q2) increased from 2.2% to 4.3%

US/AMERICAS:

The US trade deficit grew to a record $73.3 billion in August, according to the Commerce Department. The monthly trade deficit grew 4.2%, surpassing June’s record high deficit of $73.2 billion. Exports for the month rose 0.5% or $213.7 billion. Imports advanced 1.4% or $287 billion. This brings the US deficit to $558.1 billion for the year, reflecting a 33.7% increase YoY. Global supply and labor shortages, rising fuel costs, and “temporary” inflation have many analysts conflicted over the prosperity of trade for the remainder of the year.

US lawmakers have decided on a temporary solution to the impending debt ceiling crash. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that the GOP will allow the government spending to continue into December, avoiding the October 16 default date. The new agreement will permit the debt ceiling to rise by around $480 billion, according to the Associated Press. President Joe Biden is still aiming to eliminate the debt ceiling entirely and push forward a new $3.5 trillion spending plan. “This will moot Democrats’ excuses about the time crunch they created and give the unified Democratic government more than enough time to pass standalone debt limit legislation through reconciliation,” McConnell stated.

Inflation in Mexico rose in September with notable changes in energy and food prices. CPI advanced 0.62% from the month prior, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 6%, according to the National Statistics Institute. Core CPI rose 0.46%, marking a 4.92% increase YoY, and the highest annual rate in nearly four years. The Bank of Mexico has been aiming for a 3% target since the beginning of the year. At the September 30 meeting, the central bank voted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.75%. Numerous experts are expecting the central bank to raise rates once again at the November meeting, with many forecasting a hike to 5.25%.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 337.95 points or 0.98% to 34,754.94
• S&P 500 advanced 36.21 points or 0.83% to 4,399.76
• Nasdaq advanced 152.11 points or 1.05% to 14,654.02
• Russell 2000 advanced 35.14 points or 1.59% to 2,250.09

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 224.55 points or 1.11% to 20,416.21
• TSX 60 advanced 12.33 points or 1.02% to 1,255.42

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 25.86 points or 0.02% to 110,585.43

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.83 USD/BBL or 1.07% to 78.2600
• Brent increased 0.88 USD/BBL or 1.09% to 81.9600
• Natural gas decreased 0.075 USD/MMBtu or -1.32% to 5.6000
• Gasoline increased 0.0241 USD/GAL or 1.04% to 2.3323
• Heating oil increased 0.0164 USD/GAL or 0.67% to 2.4584

The above data was collected around 12:55 EST on Thursday

• Top commodity gainers: Palladium (4.10%) and Rhodium (3.68%), Lumber (4.06%) and Coffee (2.95%)
• Top commodity losers: Rubber (-1.37%), Natural Gas (-1.32%), Orange Juice (-2.33%), and Coal (-4.96%)

The above data was collected around 13:05 EST on Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.079%(-0.5bp), US 2’s 0.31%(+0.012%), US 10’s 1.5625%(+3.49bps); US 30’s 2.1198%(+0.04%),Bunds -0.1920% (-1bp), France 0.1560% (-1.4bp), Italy 0.8524% (-4.02bp), Turkey 17.92% (+2bp), Greece 0.8730% (-3.6bp), Portugal 0.353% (-2bp); Spain 0.467% (-0.41bp) and UK Gilts 1.082% (+0.9bp).