Market Talk - Friday, Oct. 1

ASIA:

Global manufacturing activity took a big hit from supply chain bottlenecks and escalating costs, exacerbated by pandemic-induced factory shutdowns in Asia and signs of slowing Chinese growth, surveys showed on Friday. While countries where outbreaks of the Delta coronavirus variant receded saw an improvement in activity, growth shrank in some as chip shortages and supply disruptions impacted those still struggling to shake off the hit from COVID-19.

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 681.59 or -2.31% to 28,771.07
  • Shanghai closed
  • Hang Seng closed
  • ASX 200 decreased 146.70 points or -2.00% to 7,185.50
  • Kospi decreased 49.64 points or -1.62% to 3,019.18
  • SENSEX decreased 360.78 points or -0.61% to 58,765.58
  • Nifty50 decreased 86.10 points or -0.49% to 17,532.05

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00442 or 0.61% to 0.72725
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00469 or 0.68% to 0.69430
  • USDJPY decreased 0.44 or -0.40% to 110.98
  • USDCNY decreased 0.01774 or -0.28% to 6.43140

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 3.08 USD/t oz. or 0.18% to 1,759.74
  • Silver increased 0.338 USD/t. oz or 1.52% to 22.538

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased from 51.2 to 51.5

Jobs/applications ratio (Aug) decreased from 1.15 to 1.14

Unemployment Rate (Aug) remain the same at 2.8%

Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q3) increased from 9.6% to 10.1%

Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q3) increased from 0.9% to 4.7%

Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q3) increased from 13 to 14

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) increased from 14 to 18

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q3) remain the same at 3

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) increased from 1 to 2

Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q3) increased from -6 to -4

Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q3) increased from -7 to -3

Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q3) decreased from -12 to -13

Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) decreased from -9 to -10

South Korea:

Exports (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 34.8% to 16.7%

Imports (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 44.0% to 31.0%

Trade Balance (Sep) increased from 1.65B to 4.20B

Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased from 51.2 to 52.4

Australia:

AIG Manufacturing Index (Sep) decreased from 51.6 to 51.2

Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.0 to 56.8

Home Loans (MoM) decreased from -0.4% to -6.6%

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) decreased from 1.8% to 1.5%

Singapore:

URA Property Index (QoQ) (Q3) increased from 0.80% to 0.90%

Indonesia:

Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased from 43.7 to 52.2

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Household Confidence (Sep) increased from 36.7 to 37.8

India:

Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased from 52.3 to 53.7

FX Reserves, USD decreased from 639.64B to 638.65B

Australia:

Commodity Prices (YoY) decreased from 49.3% to 37.4%

Indonesia:

Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 1.31% to 1.30%

Inflation (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.03% to -0.04%

Inflation (YoY) (Sep) increased from 1.59% to 1.60%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Eurozone and British manufacturing growth remained strong but activity suffered from logistical issues, product shortages and a labor crunch that are likely to persist and keep inflationary pressures high.

Eurozone’s IHS Markit’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) sank to 58.6 in September from August’s 61.4 and Britain’s PMI fell for a fourth month in a row, dropping to 57.1 from 60.3. Anything above 50 indicates growth. Growth in French manufacturing weakened a tad more than initially forecast, its PMI showed, as problems over supplies of goods weighed on the industry.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 2.32 points or -0.04% to 6,517.69
  • FTSE 100 decreased 59.35 points or -0.84% to 7,027.07
  • DAX 30 decreased 104.25 points or -0.68% to 15,156.44

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00218 or 0.19% to 1.15964
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00933 or 0.69% to 1.35617
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00257 or -0.28% to 0.92979

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) remain the same at 0.4%

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) increased from -4.5% to 1.1%

German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 62.6 to 58.4

France:

French Government Budget Balance (Aug) decreased from -166.6B to -178.0B

French Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 57.5 to 55.0

Spain:

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 59.5 to 58.1

Swiss:

procure.ch PMI (Sep) increased from 67.7 to 68.1

Italy:

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 60.9 to 59.7

Norway:

Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 61.7 to 59.2

Unemployment Change (Sep) decreased from 94.05K to 89.45K

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) decreased from 2.70% to 2.40%

UK:

Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 60.3 to 57.1

Euro Zone:

Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 61.4 to 58.6

Core CPI (MoM) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

Core CPI (YoY) increased from 1.6% to 1.9%

CPI (MoM) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.0% to 3.4%

CPI, n.s.a (Sep) increased from 107.98 to 108.49

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) increased from 1.6% to 1.9%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) increased from 0.2% to 0.5%

US/AMERICAS:

A new report by the US Commerce Department shows an uptick in consumer spending. Despite consumer prices rising 0.4% in August from July, consumer spending rose 0.8% compared to 0.1% the month prior. Personal income advanced 0.3% as well. Core PCE rose to 3.6% on a YoY basis, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inflation is now at a 30-year high after rising 4.3%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell voiced on Thursday that the central bank expects inflation to last longer than originally anticipated, but blamed supply chain bottlenecks, the delta variant, and labor shortages for the uptick in prices.

The Canadian economy declined 0.1% in July, according to a report released by Statistics Canada this Friday. The figure surpassed analysts’ expectations of a 0.4% decline for the month. The food service sector, which experienced a sharp decline amid the ongoing lockdowns, rose by 12.5%. After quarantine requirements for vaccinated passengers were lifted in July, air transportation spiked 67.7%. Despite promising data, all sectors remain well beneath pre-pandemic levels. The food service sector remains 21.3% beneath February 2020 levels, with air transportation sharply declining 83%.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 482.54 points or 1.43% to 34,326.46
  • S&P 500 advanced 49.5 points or 1.15% to 4,357.04
  • Nasdaq advanced 118.12 points or 0.82% to 14,566.7
  • Russell 2000 advanced 37.26 points or 1.69% to 2,241.63

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 80.62 points or 0.4% to 20,150.87
  • TSX 60 advanced 5.1 points or 0.42% to 1,208.44

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 1,920.54 points or 1.73% to 112,899.64

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil increased 0.42 USD/BBL or 0.56% to 75.4500
  • Brent increased 0.49 USD/BBL or 0.63% to 78.8000
  • Natural gas decreased 0.247 USD/MMBtu or -4.21% to 5.6200
  • Gasoline increased 0.0342 USD/GAL or 1.56% to 2.2282
  • Heating oil increased 0.0235 USD/GAL or 1.00% to 2.3620

The above data was collected around 13:08 EST on Friday

  • Top commodity gainers: Copper (2.52%) and Wheat (4.03%), Cocoa (2.19%) and Coffee (4.72%)
  • Top commodity losers: Palm Oil (-2.13%), Zinc (-1.00%), Rubber (-1.36%), and Natural Gas (-4.21%)

The above data was collected around 13:14 EST on Friday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.06%(-0.5bp), US 2’s 0.27%(-0.014%), US 10’s 1.4788%(-1.37bps); US 30’s 2.0618%(+0.01%),Bunds -0.2240% (-3.3bp), France 0.1240% (-3.5bp), Italy 0.8207% (-4.18bp), Turkey 17.77% (+4bp), Greece 0.8500% (+0.3bp), Portugal 0.347% (-2.30bp); Spain 0.442% (-1.88bp) and UK Gilts 1.013% (-1.1bp).

Disclosure: None.

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