Market Talk - Friday, May 21


Trade between China and the US continued an upward trend in the past four months, official data showed, highlighting inseparable economic relations between the two countries. In the first four months of the year, China’s trade with the US rose 50.3 percent year-on-year to 1.44 trillion yuan ($222.8 billion), making the US its third largest trading partner after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and EU economies, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Friday. China’s exports to the US rose 49.3 percent while imports gained 53.3 percent, and the trade surplus with the US was 653.89 billion yuan, an increase of 47 percent.

The Reserve Bank of India’s board approved a significantly higher than expected surplus transfer to the government on Friday but it may not be enough to cushion the damage from a crippling second wave of the novel coronavirus. The RBI announced a surplus transfer of 991.22 billion rupees ($13.58 billion) for the 9-month period from July 2020 to March 2021, the central bank said in a statement. The bank will move to an April to March accounting year from 2021/22, from a July to June year. The government had budgeted to receive a surplus of about 500 billion rupees from the RBI to be accounted for in the budget for 2021/22, while in the previous full accounting year, the RBI had transferred 571.28 billion rupees as surplus. The higher-than-expected dividend or surplus transfer to the government comes as the government is expecting a sharp sequential fall in tax collections due to the severe second wave of COVID-19 which has forced lockdowns in several states.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 219.58 points or 0.78% to 28,317.83
  • Shanghai decreased 20.39 points or -0.58% to 3,486.56
  • Hang Seng increased 8.15 points or 0.03% to 28,458.44
  • ASX 200 increased 10.70 points or 0.15% to 7,030.30
  • Kospi decreased 5.86 points or -0.19% to 3,156.42
  • SENSEX increased 975.62 points or 1.97% to 50,540.48
  • Nifty50 increased 269.25 points or 1.81% to 15,175.30

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00419 or -0.54% to 0.77306
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00317 or -0.44% to 0.71649
  • USDJPY increased 0.09 or 0.08% to 108.93
  • USDCNY increased 0.00511 or 0.08% to 6.43716

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 2.42 USD/t oz. or 0.13% to 1,879.11
  • Silver decreased 0.17 USD/t. oz or -0.62% to 27.569

Some economic news from last night:


CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.2% to -0.3%

National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) remain the same at -0.1%

National CPI (MoM) decreased from 0.2% to -0.4%

National CPI (YoY) (Apr) decreased from -0.2% to -0.4%

Manufacturing PMI (May) decreased from 53.6 to 52.5

Services PMI decreased from 48.3 to 45.7

South Korea:

PPI (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 1.1% to 0.6%

PPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 4.1% to 5.6%


Manufacturing PMI increased from 59.7 to 59.9

Services PMI decreased from 58.8 to 58.2

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%

New Zealand:

Credit Card Spending (YoY) increased from 0.5% to 87.4%

Some economic news from today:

Hong Kong:

CPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 0.50% to 0.70%


Bank Loan Growth increased from 5.7% to 6.0%

Deposit Growth decreased from 10.3% to 9.9%

FX Reserves, USD increased from 589.47B to 590.03B


Balance of Payments (EUR) (Q1) increased from -0.2B to 4.1B

Current Account % of GDP (Q1) decreased from 0.30% to -0.40%


The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly to “freeze” any consideration of a massive investment deal with China, following recent tit-for-tat sanctions over Beijing’s treatment of its Uyghur population in Xinjiang province. The vote on the motion was passed by a landslide, with 599 votes for, 30 votes against, and with 58 abstentions. The massive trade deal was a result of seven years of marathon negotiations. The final talks were wrapped up late last year by the Chinese president Xi Jinping, along with European leaders such as Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron as well as the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.

UK ministers are expected to offer Australia a trade deal that will gradually eliminate all tariffs and quotas, one seen as a victory for free-trade Brexiters in the cabinet but is likely to prompt alarm among UK farmers. With a deal informally scheduled to be agreed next month, on Thursday Johnson chaired a meeting of ministers, including Truss and Eustice. According to the Sun and the BBC, the eventual decision was to seek a 15-year timetable to zero tariffs and quotas. The National Farmers’ Union has warned that a series of post-Brexit trade deals that offer full access to the UK market to producers in other countries could cause “irreversible damage” to UK farming. Ministers have promised to protect domestic farmers, but have not said how.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 42.83 points or 0.68% to 6,386.41
  • FTSE 100 decreased 1.74 points or -0.02% to 7,018.05
  • DAX 30 increased 67.25 points or 0.44% to 15,437.51

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00456 or -0.37% to 1.21812
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00301 or -0.21% to 1.41553
  • USDCHF increased 0.00046 or 0.05% to 0.89797

Some economic news from Europe today:


Composite PMI (May) increased from 60.0 to 62.0

Manufacturing PMI (May) increased from 60.7 to 66.1

Services PMI (May) increased from 60.1 to 61.8

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) increased from 4.6% to 9.0%

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) increased from 7.9% to 37.7%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) increased from 7.2% to 42.4%

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) increased from 5.1% to 9.2%


House Price Index (YoY) (May) increased from 12.20% to 12,30%


French Manufacturing PMI (May) increased from 58.9 to 59.2

French Markit Composite PMI (May) increased from 51.6 to 57.0

French Services PMI (May)increased from 50.3 to 56.6


German Composite PMI (May) increased from 55.8 to 56.2

German Manufacturing PMI (May) decreased from 66.2 to 64.0

German Services PMI (May) increased from 49.9 to 52.8


Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.20% to 1.60%

Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.80% to 38.10%

Euro Zone:

Consumer Confidence (May) increased from -8.1 to -5.1

Manufacturing PMI (May) decreased from 62.9 to 62.8

Markit Composite PMI (May) increased from 53.8 to 56.9

Services PMI (May) increased from 50.5 to 55.1


The US Treasury Department has allocated $6 billion for landlords impacted by the coronavirus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) placed an eviction ban for tenants who could not pay their rent, but the moratorium is set to expire in the next few weeks. With one in seven Americans stating they’re behind on rent, landlords have been struggling to meet their financial obligations.

The Internal Revenue Service plans to issue the enhanced child tax credit (CTC) next month under the American Rescue Plan (ARP). Nearly 88% of Americans are believed to qualify for the tax credit. Families could receive upward of $3,000 for children between the ages of 6 and 17 and $3,600 for children under 6. To qualify, married taxpayers filing jointly must earn under $150,000 and/or the head of the household must earn under $112,500. The funds will come in the form of a monthly tax credit that will be issued on the 15th of every month and is set to expire in December. However, President Biden is pushing for the American Families Plan to last for four more years until 2025.

Around 22 mostly Republican-led states are canceling weekly unemployment benefit boost pay. Desperate to attract people back to the workforce, four states have announced that will pay people a return-to-work bonus. Residents of Arizona, Oklahoma, Montana, and New Hampshire could qualify for a bonus of up to $2,000 simply for joining the workforce. “In Arizona, we’re going to use federal money to encourage people to work instead of paying people not to work,” Governor Doug Ducey stated.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 123.69 points or 0.36% to 34,207.84
  • S&P 500 declined 3.26 points or -0.08% to 4,155.86
  • Nasdaq declined 64.75 points or -0.48% to 13,470.99
  • Russell 2000 advanced 7.51 points or 0.34% to 2,215.27

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 15.65 points or -0.09% to 19.527.3
  • TSX 60 declined 1.22 points or -0.1% to 1,169.48

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 108.32 points or -0.09% to 122,592.47


The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil increased 1.74 USD/BBL or 2.81% to 63.6800
  • Brent increased 1.36 USD/BBL or 2.09% to 66.4700
  • Natural gas decreased 0.018 USD/MMBtu or -0.62% to 2.9070
  • Gasoline increased 0.021 USD/GAL or 1.03% to 2.0682
  • Heating oil increased 0.023 USD/GAL or 1.17% to 1.9874
  • Top commodity gainers: Lumber (4.53%), Coal (3.55%), Brent (2.09%) and Crude Oil (2.81%)
  • Top commodity losers: Palladium (-2.59%), Palm Oil (-2.89%), Platinum (-2.18%), and Canola (-2.29%)

The above data was collected around 15:11 EST on Friday.


Japan 0.0870%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.1553%(+0.00%), US 10’s 1.6301%(-0.39bps); US 30’s 2.3328%(-0.01%), Bunds -0.13% (-2bp), France 0.249% (-2.1bp), Italy 1.0347% (-2bp), Turkey 17.48% (+1bp), Greece 0.98% (-6bp), Portugal 0.564% (-1.7bp); Spain 0.555% (-2.07bp) and UK Gilts 0.829% (-1bp).

Disclosure: None.

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