E Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 21

Stocks fly around in turbulence - partially related to Quarterly Expiration; while also leaving investors in doubt about near-term stability prospects. Perhaps they may just relax a bit; after all this is the stock market, and it's a bifurcated one at that. It's not at all like taking a trip on a  Boeing 737 Max soon (mis-renamed the 737-8); where most will ponder every dip or lift during turbulence pondering needlessly whether it's going to impact the aircraft's angle-of-attack; when it's really only takeoff that's concerning.

Speaking of takeoff; the new trading week historically can be vulnerable; but not in a straight line. We'll be between the Jewish holidays; as an old adage comes into play: 'Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur' which really isn't particular relevant. It's less so this year given everyone is working, playing and praying from home primarily; and even the firms like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs that tried bringing traders to their offices were compelled to reverse that trend with immediate new Covid cases.  

Sure, softness related to an 'old saw' about the Jewish holidays had some merit years ago when most traders - of any faith - would use the holidays as an excuse to take off a day or two, even if they were Irishmen working the NY Floor. It also just so happens September seasonally is often the year's weakest month, and down a majority of the time. When it's not, October becomes more risky. This time, it's already defensive led by 'super-cap' corrections. And one of the most contested Elections in U.S. history.  

Executive summary:

  • With volatility and chop related to Quarterly Expiration behind; markets can focus on the same backdrop issues, which generally do not have clear prospects, other than the Fed continuing to inject massive liquidity; plus now a SCOTUS vacancy;
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