President Trump signed legislation into law that ends longest government shutdown in history. The bill was narrowly passed by the House of Representatives earlier on Wednesday. All but six Democrats voted against the bill while just two Republicans in the House voted against the bill. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the negative impact on the economy will be mostly recovered once the shutdown ends, but not entirely. It estimated the permanent economic loss at about $11 billion for a six-week shutdown.

The government shutdown ended on Wednesday, but the next one could start as early as January. Under the deal, everything else is funded on a temporary basis through Jan. 30 at levels first set by Congress in March 2024, when Joe Biden was president.

White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdown. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that part of the fallout could be lasting damage to the government’s data collection ability.

The Federal Reserve is on track to again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support a weakening labor market, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters. “The general sense is the labor market still looks relatively weak and that’s one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will continue to deliver that December cut. But the risk to December will be potentially data dispelling that sense of weakness,” said Abigail Watt, US economist at UBS.

Boston Fed President Collins advocates holding rates steady, sees ‘high bar’ for further cuts. “Given my baseline outlook, it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment,” she said on Wednesday.

Delayed US economic data is expected in the days and weeks ahead. Now that the government has reopened, “markets will face a flood of delayed data releases,” said Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank. “Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests the September employment report may be among the first to be released, potentially within three business days after reopening.”

More By This Author:

Weak Jobs Data Favors Another Rate Cut In December… Maybe
Macro Briefing - Wednesday, Nov. 12
High-Beta Stocks Continue Leading Equity Risk Factors In 2025