Macro Briefing - Friday, Sep. 5
Hiring at US companies slowed to 73,000 in August, below expectations. “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”
US jobless claims rose last week, advancing the highest level since June. “We continue to see softness growing in the labor market as tariff policy uncertainty lingers, immigration changes take effect, and AI adoption grows,” said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “The silver lining is the weaker the jobs data, the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon.”
The ISM Services Index rose to 52.0 in August, indicating a moderate growth rate for the sector. “That was better than expected and marked the highest level since February, suggesting resilience in the still-expanding services sector despite some headwinds,” wrote economists at BMO. The employment component of the survey, however, continued to reflect contraction last month.
The US trade deficit widened more than expected in July. “While imports bounced back in July, more than half of the increase was due to gold as trade policy and safe-haven demand brought about a resurgence in trade,” said Matthew Martin, Senior U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics. “Excluding gold, imports rose by a more modest 3.3%.
Relatively loose macro conditions remain a tailwind for stocks, advises TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. “A proxy for macro conditions has been relatively supportive for equities, which may help explain the stock market’s resilience lately.”
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