Macro Briefing - Thursday, Sep. 4

US job openings fell in July, dropping to a level that’s close to a 4-1/2 year low and fueling expectations that the labor market is cooling. The report strengthened forecasts that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting on Sep. 17. “This is a turning point for the labor market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s yet another crack.”


President Trump asks the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court decision that found many of his sweeping tariffs are illegal. In a petition filed on Wednesday, the administration asked for a quick ruling that gives the president the power to impose import taxes on foreign nations.

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for the open Federal Reserve Governor role, vowed to uphold the central bank’s independence and its dual mandate — price stability and maximum employment. In prepared remarks released ahead of his testimony today in the Senate Banking Committee, he said: “In my view, the most important job of the central bank is to prevent Depressions and hyperinflations. Independence of monetary policy is a critical element for its success.”

Tariffs are lifting prices and squeezing household budgets, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The report found that notes US economic activity saw “little or no change” across most of the country in recent weeks.

US factory orders slumped for a second month in July. Weak bookings in commercial aircraft was a key source of the downshift.

Gold could rise to $5000 an ounce from the current $3560 if President Trump undermines the Federal Reserve, predicts an analyst at Goldman Sachs. “A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

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