Gallup CEO Backpedals: Government Jobs Data Is 'Very, Very Accurate'
Gallup CEO Jim Clifton caused big waves across the media on Tuesday when he published an article calling the official government unemployment number of 5.6% a “big lie.” Clearly the powers that be were not pleased with the criticism. The very next day, Clifton appeared on CNBC to qualify his statement.
In an almost Orwellian turn of events, Clifton hinted that he was afraid of the government if he didn’t disavow his written statement:
I don’t think that the government is misleading us at all. I think that the number that comes out of BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the Department of Labor is very, very accurate. I need to make that very, very clear so that I don’t suddenly disappear. I need to make it home tonight…”
As the interview continued, Clifton softened his condemnation of the official data by calling it “very, very misleading.” He wants Americans to wake up to the reality that the employment situation of the middle class is terrible and not accurately reflected in the government’s unemployment rate. He said:
The percent of full-time jobs in this country to the population is the worst it has been in 30 years… When you’re at dinner, ask people about this. Nobody knows that number. That’s why the middle class is hollowed out.”
In the 24-hour news cycle, Clifton’s point is quickly swept under the rug. Friday the latest jobs numbers came out, and once again everybody is rejoicing at how positive they are. More jobs were added to the economy than expected, but there is no mention of the quality of these jobs. Even with the jobs increase, the official unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.7%.
Transcript of Clifton’s responses on CNBC:
“I don’t think that the government is misleading us at all. I think that the number that comes out of BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the Department of Labor is very, very accurate. I need to make that very, very clear so that I don’t suddenly disappear. I need to make it home tonight…
“I think it’s the way the number is being used. Gallup analytic teams were trying to figure out where the middle class was. [They] looked into the GDP, and of course, GDP… hasn’t moved in 5 years. The blended rate of 5 years is about 2.2. Then we went to jobs. I keep reading in good papers, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the president tells us that unemployment is the best it’s been in 10 years. Okay, there’s one side of it.
“Our concern with our analysts is that it’s very, very misleading. What America really wants are full-time jobs, 30+ hours. Here’s the misleading point. The percent of full-time jobs in this country to the population is the worst it has been in 30 years. Although you have an astute audience, when you’re at dinner, ask people about this. Nobody knows that number. That’s why the middle class is hollowed out.”
Disclosure: None.
Unless methodology and approach is constantly evaluated, corrected, and improved the accuracy of any overly broad given statistic measuring is liable to wane, especially when there is reason to alter it, is widely dispersed to the very people it measures, depends on self reporting, involves multiple statistics dependent on one another, involves parties that may have reason to lie, and accuracy is a problem for many components of those statistics.
Sadly, there needs to be constant vetting and review of government statistics, not fewer, and there needs to be resources applied to an agency separate from those doing the statistics to root out and find errors, lies, or misleading facts in all the data the government these days espouses as fact. Some statistical claims are clearly oversimplifications of the data even if the statistics themselves are correct. There seems to be a serious need for the market to trade on the news and don't even bother looking for the facts. Government statistics are a case in point.