Front-Loading The Market

Front-loading the market - For years we have asserted that the Fed was front-loading the market, levitating financial assets and presumably hoping for a 'rising tide to lift all boats' phenomenon. Our issue was how they overstayed, especially nearing QE3, a point where the Fed needed to start backing-off.


Officials argued this was still required and delayed trying the first step toward normalizing rates most recently, which is part, but not all of why we projected a topping phase of the secondary rebound (with the real last high being in July). At the same time believing they really had to move, even if it would backfire.

Today confirmed what we had contended and we smiled when hearing now-retired Fed Dallas President Dick Fisher candidly say, to reporters' amazement, that the Fed did just that, front-loaded the stock market. The candor was refreshing in denoting a rare flat-out acceptance of credit (or blame) for the Fed artificially helping levitate stocks. It matters as he was on the FOMC whereas we are just analysts. But it confirms a suspicion that was a goal; probably with hopes to 'lift all boats, not just yachts'.

This matters, given the political haggling (Hillary Clinton compelled to explore at least the outer edges of the topic, while Bernie Sanders goes head-on). Given a recollection of even George Bush's concern about 'bloated bankers', this may become a populist battleground with both parties focused on more than hedge fund reform or tax adjustments. Markets might not take kindly to this either. 

Bottom-line: I promised a shorter text tonight. While I shuffle-through some of the 'Day Zero' CES releases. Also, the market is doing exactly as outlined, and I describe the pertinent intra day (and macro) features via the videos I've hyperlinked after the following chart.  

 

Tuesday (final) MarketCast

Pre-close (intraday) MarketCast  

 


 

 

Disclosure: None.

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