If you haven’t yet purchased that big bag of Halloween candy this year, be prepared for sticker shock.

(Click on image to enlarge)

CPI and PPI data from the BLS, chart from Fred, the St. Louis Fed data repository.

The CPI for candy and gum is ripping higher. So is the PPI for cocoa, a key ingredient in chocolate.

Cocoa Futures

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cocoa futures courtesy of Trading Economics.

Cocoa futures traded above $3,700 a tonne, their highest since mid-September and heading towards recent 45-year-highs, on signs of stronger global cocoa demand despite a sharp rise in prices. 

Candy Getting Scary Expensive

The Wall Street Journal comments Halloween Candy Is Getting Scary Expensive.

Americans are expected to spend a record $12.2 billion this Halloween on candy, costumes and other expenses, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade association. That is a 15% increase over last year. Consumers are expected to shell out $3.6 billion on candy alone, a 16% increase from 2022.

“I go out and look at these prices and I’m like, ‘Oh, my God,’” said Valentina Casamento of Bayonne, N.J.

Casamento saw a bag of mini Snickers and other chocolates for about $13 at a drugstore. Casamento, a 31-year-old who works as an online clothing reseller, said she has seen the same bag for about $9 in the past.

“Like many industries, we continue to face high inflation and spikes in material costs,” said a spokesperson for Mars, the maker of candies such as Skittles and M&Ms. “We work to absorb these extra costs wherever possible.”

Crystal Johnson is cutting back on Halloween candy this year because of sticker shock. After seeing that a bag of 155 mini chocolates cost $21.97 at a big-box store, Johnson said she plans to buy two bags instead of the five she usually gets. Last year, the bags were about $16, she said.

“You have to sit there and decide, ‘OK do I pay my water bill or do I go buy the amount of candy that I actually know I need,’” said Johnson, a stay-at-home mom in Crosby, Texas. “The water bill has to come first.” 

Johnson said her rent this year went up by $300 a month, and she is paying more at the supermarket for chicken, ground beef and bacon. “We’re just having to cut back in places like Halloween candy,” she said. 

CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent

(Click on image to enlarge)

On October 12, I noted CPI Rises More Than Expected as Rent Jumps Another 0.6 Percent

For the 26th straight month dating to august of 2021, rent increased at least 0.4 percent.

I repeat the core key theme for something like two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep doubting. The doubters have it correct again.

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped 0.6 percent. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 26 consecutive months!

All these “rents are falling” projections have been based on the price of new leases, but existing leases, vastly more important, keep rising.

The Cost of Eating Out is Skyrocketing, Are You Cutting Back?

(Click on image to enlarge)

In October 13, I asked The Cost of Eating Out is Skyrocketing, Are You Cutting Back?

The cost of eating away from home has increased at least 0.4 percent for 25 of the last 27 months! Are you doing anything about that?

In the grand scheme of things, the price of Halloween candy is just a minor irritation.

Besides, Krugman Says “We Won the War on Inflation at Very Little Cost”

So go ahead and splurge. The war is over.

Double the treats you hand out this year unless it means not paying your water bill or rent.

More By This Author:

Is This A Stock Market Correction Or A Resumption Of The Bear Market?
Real Disposable Personal Income Drops For The Third Month But Spending Jumps
Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase In GDP But Real Disposable Income Declines 1.0 Percent