Comparing GDP, Employment To 2007
For my macro lectures next week:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, in logs, normalized 2020M02=0 (blue), lagged and normalized 2007M12=0 (red). Source: BLS.
Figure 2: Real GDP, in logs, normalized to 2019Q4=0 (blue), Goldman Sachs 3/31 forecast (teal triangles), lagged and normalized to 2007Q4=0 (red). Source: BEA and Goldman Sachs.
Disclosure: None.
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I still find Fed lending to financial institutions the single most impressive indicator that something broke:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BORROW