Beware: All Signs Portend An Imminent Market Correction
Being primarily a preferred investor, I feel that my portfolio will not be as adversely affected as the common shareholder in the event of a market correction; however, 2008 taught me that we all face portfolio danger during a deep correction. Unfortunately, because I own no crystal ball nor am gifted with any foresight into the future, I cannot be certain about when this will occur or how severe the correction will be. Therefore, to protect my interests I gradually, over the past three years, have transitioned my portfolio from one heavily margin-based to one heavy with cash. In short, I've de-risked my portfolio in the safest way possible by increasing my cash position by reducing my at-risk investment portfolio.
Yet, thanks to Trump and the Republican party's engineered tax cut signed into law on 12/22/17, my preferred portfolio has never looked better. However, I see evidence of troubling signs on the horizon. First, I'd like to discuss why the market has been performing at record levels. When Trump took office, he, fortunately, inherited a vibrant economy that had a consistent bull run since early 2009. Prior to that and Obama's election to the presidency, we were mired in a deep recession verging on another great depression. To avoid this catastrophe, the government was forced to lend 100's of billions of dollars to the severely undercapitalized banks and other such institutions to jump-start our economy. Unfortunately, during this time trillions of dollars were added to the national debt. However, toward the end of Obama's presidency, the years budget deficit had been pared from approximately $1.2 trillion to several hundred billion dollars per year.
When Trump took office, and the economy fully recovered with the market doing quite well, what he should have done was to start paying down the national debt as he had promised while campaigning. What he did do was the opposite. He and his Republican allies in Congress pushed through the tax bill on 12/22/17, which cut the taxes on corporate America and the super-wealthy dramatically while throwing scraps to the rest of us. The result:
Furthermore, the ISM report showed a manufacturing slowdown in December, which portends doom and gloom for our economy going forward.
Currently, the markets are measured at all-time highs, unfortunately, much of it is fueled, not only, by the burgeoning of our national debt as a result of the passage of the December tax package gift for corporate America, but also a result our primarily, 70% consumer-driven economy buoyed by a new record level of personal debt which now tops $14 trillion; greater than the debt we accrued prior to the last great recession that began in 2008 that bottomed out in early March 2009. However, by that time trillions of dollars of the world's worth had been lost. My fear is that as history is apt to do, it repeats itself. Only this time the outcome might be far worse and its effects more prolonged than the previous debacle.
Making matters worse, should Trump be reelected, he will be at the helm attempting to right the foundering ship that is our economy. An economy made worse by many of his intemperate and foolhardy decisions. Moreso, he will have the backing of a sycophantic Republican party parroting his words and tweets and praising them as if Moses were returning from the mountain relating the word of God.
And the fools who follow this man, and many of them are investors who are dazzled by the performance of their portfolios regardless of the damage done to the country we are all invested in. And as most investors often do, they will wait too long to exit their investments, and as in 2008 end up losing all their recent gains plus much more besides.
At this moment in time, I've chosen safety over profit, profit, BTW, that in no way will affect my comfortable lifestyle. Yes, I'm still invested, but far less than I was prior to the inauguration of the present administration. I fear our chickens will soon come home to roost, and I intend to be out of town when that occurs. When it will happen I cannot say because that information is far above my pay grade. However, be assured that it will happen, and as far as I'm concerned, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of pain and cure.
This is my opening article as a TalkMarkets contributor. I'm simply an average market investor with one claim to fame: I know more about preferred investing than most, and the majority of my ...
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@[Norman Roberts](user:35984), I agree with you 100%.
This is why I exited my long positions at the end of the year and went severely short, losing a bit now but I got my eye on the big picture, as you describe. Puts are your best friend. Long puts that is....
I built a large following as a Seeking Alpha contributor in a very short time, but the minute I wrote an article concerning the dangers of a Trump presidency, I was attacked by many of those same followers. Although I never considered myself much of a patriot, compared to many I'm Nathan Hale. How did we become this way?
I think everybody would be better served if you dropped your patriotic holierthanthou rhetoric and focused on the bearish opportunity presenting itself. Why should I, or anybody for that matter (you included) as a trader give a rats behind about anything other than making quick money in the markets? I have tremendous respect for you Norman. I was one of your die hard followers on SA. But just please cut the crap.
I would if we were not facing an existential threat to our democracy, our country, and yes, our planet. What good is money if we don't have the opportunity to enjoy it. You're right, I shouldn't care, I'll be dead before the worst happens, you might still be alive. Unfortunately, like it or not, we are all invested in the same company/USA.
What you're is admirable but it's just a waste of effort in my opinion. Worrying isn't gonna change anything. Here's my attitude, make a fortune trading, take every last penny on the bearish side, watch the economy and country crash and burn (as long as I own speculative long puts) and take the fortune that will likely be in a currency such as USD and convert it into a stable asset cause you can't trust the dollar forever. Last but not least, take your hard assets and move to the Cayman islands, Bahamas or Macau with your family. It's really simple. Everybody including the president is raping America and then tossing her out in the cold, why aren't you willing to do the same? Nothing to do with conscious or morals, what you're saying is admirable but foolish and this isn't the place for it.
Ultimately, age and a secure comfortable lifestyle have tempered my need to earn more money. Safety is now my primary concern, which is assured. Only some cataclysmic event can screw that up, which the idiot-in-chief is quite capable of stumbling into. Iran, Rocket Man, Climate change denial, and who knows what else. Therefore, I post, what my diet, get plenty of exercise, and avoid all stress. Now if we can only get rid of Trump the world will be a far safer place.
Liberal Alert!!!!!!!!!
Absolutely, if we don't wake up to the threat Trump and his GOP apologists pose we will be in deep doodoo. Climate change denial at this time endangers not only us but the planet, the only place we have to live.
You sound paranoid. Let's let our great great grandchildren deal with it, the hell with them. They'll probably be assholes anyway! But your days are numbered my friend, please just try to enjoy, I beg of you! I'll even allow you to take Menon a vacation to a place of your choosing, your treat!!!
Have no fear, Sherief, I enjoy the hell out of my time here. I still play BBall and run with kids young enough to be my grandchildren. Sickeningly healthy and like the 12-year old I used to be wake up with no cares in the world except to enjoy my life. As for Trump, monsters like him I always found reprehensible and the thought of him being our president sickens me. I used o believe in Truth, Justice and the American way, no longer. Hence, as Superman flies off to his Fortress of Solitude, I retreat to my comfortable cocoon in sunny S. Florida.
That's awesome Norman. I guess you just really are concerned about our future, as we all should be. But you know what it is, especially with our industry..it's very easy to lose track of what's important in life...especially those of us who are not yet as financially secure as yourself. We are too selfish, admittedly. God bless you.
It's OK to be selfish, but it's necessary to always be aware of the big picture, which in this case is the future of our democracy, our country, and the planet. Ignoring what's happening in Australia we do at our peril. Again at Davos, Trump ignored Climate Change. How will we enjoy our wealth on a dying planet? Yes, the planet will be here, but will we? Is this the beginning of the next great extinction? A self-made one at that.
Same here.
Are you going in the indice route or individual stock options?