We just had a holiday, so some of the COVID-19 numbers are incomplete. However, hospitalizations haven’t vacillated during and after holidays, so they can be relied upon. That’s because if a state doesn’t give an update for the day, the prior update is used for that state. Fewer tests are done on the weekend and on holidays which impacts cases. Deaths tend to come out in bunches which can make the data volatile. Furthermore, we want to know the leading information, which is cases.

🇺🇸 #Covid_19 (1) | On a 7-day MA basis, new confirmed cases (adjusted for testing) have declined since the second week of January with a sharp drop of the positivity rate.
*The move suggests that the downward normalization in hospitalizations will continue in the short term. pic.twitter.com/hkOBwDHa0w

— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) January 20, 2021

As you can see from the chart above, hospitalizations have finally peaked. This time the decline is related to vaccinations. We’re getting better data at exactly the time you’d expect because it takes 2 weeks for the vaccines to stop the spread. There have been 16.3 million vaccines given out in America which is 4.9% of the country. There were 806,716 doses given out per day on average last week. Alaska leads the way with 9.44% of its population vaccinated. Alaska already had seen new cases peak in mid-December, but it’s seeing even more of a decline because of the vaccines. The 7 day average of cases is only 236 in the state. 

Positive News of the Day

Vaccinations are working, Hospitalizations rolled over near exact date seen from roll-out

Chart via Goldman pic.twitter.com/erP1Bob5hW

— Joe Kunkle (@OptionsHawk) January 19, 2021

The national death rate should decline soon because the vaccines were first given out to the most vulnerable. The 7 day average of deaths is 3,098. The recent decline is related to the holiday. We should see deaths decline quickly in February as there is a delay from when people enter the hospital to when they die. This all adds up to a revived economy that should reopen this spring. There should be a massive increase in spending on gatherings, travel, and dining out this summer as people were forced to social distance for over 1 year.