Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 25 And Oct. 1
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Here are my forecasts for the upcoming economic data.
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of September 25 | |||
| September 25 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - August | 0.0 | 0.12 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -12 | -17.2 | |
| September 26 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - July | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.1% | 0.9 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 0.3 | -1.2 | |
| FHFA Home Price Index - July | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Consumer Confidence - September | 107.0 | 106.1 | 105.6 |
| New Home Sales - August | 700K | 714 | 700 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -6 | -7 | |
| September 27 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - August | 0.0% | -5.2 | -2.0 |
| September 28 | |||
| GDP - Q2 (f) | 2.2% | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 220K | 201 | 217 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - Aug | 77.2 | 77.6 | 77.4 |
| September 29 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - August | -92.2 | -91.2 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - August (a) | -0.2% | -0.2 | |
| Personal Income - August | 0.5% | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| PCE Price Index | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Real Personal Spending | |||
| Chicago PMI - September | 47.0 | 48.7 | 47.4 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r) | 67.7 | 67.7 | 67.7 |
| Week of October 2 | |||
| October 2 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index | 48.9 | 48.9 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - Sept | 47.6 | 47.6 | |
| Construction Spending - August | 0.6% | 0.7 | |
| October 3 | |||
| Auto Sales - September | 15.4 | 15 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.1 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.2 | 11.9 | |
| JOLTS - August | 8.900M | 8.827 | |
| October 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - August | 0.3% | -2.1 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -0.3 | -5.2 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.8 | 1.1 | |
| ADP Employment Report - September | 130K | 177 | |
| PMI Services Index | 50.2 | 50.2 | |
| ISM Services - September | 53.2 | 54.5 | |
| October 5 | |||
| International Trade - August | -66.2 | -65.0 | |
| October 6 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - September | 150K | 187 | |
| Private | 130 | 179 | |
| Manufacturing | 5 | 16 | |
| Unemployment | 3.7% | 3.8 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.4HR | 34.4 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.2 | |
| Consumer Credit - August | 10.4M | 10.4 |
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 18 And 25
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 11 And 18
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 4 And 11
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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