Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 29 & Aug. 5
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| July 25 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 240K | 243 | |
| GDP - Q2 (a) | 2.0% | 1.4 | |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - June | 0.6% | 0.1 | |
| International Trade in Goods - June | -98.6 | -100.6 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - June (a) | 0.3% | 0.6 | |
| July 26 | |||
| Personal Income - June | 0.4% | 0.5 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| Real Personal Spending | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r) | 66.0 | 66.0 | |
| Week of July 29 | |||
| July 29 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -13.5 | -15.1 | |
| July 30 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - May | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.0% | 1.4 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.6 | 0.4 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 6.8 | 7.2 | |
| FHFA Home Price Index - May | 0.3% | 0.2 | |
| Consumer Confidence - July | 99.7 | 100.4 | |
| JOLTS - June | 8.140M | 8.140 | |
| July 31 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - July | 165K | 150 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Q2 | 1.0% | 1.2 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| Chicago PMI - July | 41.4 | 47.4 | |
| Pending Home Sale Index - June | 73.2 | 70.8 | |
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.375 | |
| August 1 | |||
| Productivity - Q2 (p) | 2.2% | 0.2 | |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.1 | 4.0 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - July | 49.5 | 49.5 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - July | 48.6 | 48.5 | |
| Construction Spending - June | 0.3% | -0.1 | |
| Auto Sales - July | 15.9M | 15.3 | |
| Car Sales | 3.0 | 2.8 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.9 | 12.5 | |
| August 2 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - July | 190K | 206 | |
| Private | 165 | 136 | |
| Manufacturing | 10 | -8 | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.3 | 34.3 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Factory Orders - June | 0.5% | -0.5 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.4 | -1.0 | |
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 22 & 29
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 15 & 22
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 8 & 15
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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