Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 29 & Aug. 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation
July 25
Initial Unemployment Claims	240K	243
GDP - Q2 (a)	2.0%	1.4
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
Durable Goods Orders - June	0.6%	0.1
International Trade in Goods - June	-98.6	-100.6
Wholesale Inventories - June (a)	0.3%	0.6

July 26
Personal Income - June	0.4%	0.5
Personal Spending	0.3	0.2
Real Personal Spending	0.1	0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)	66.0	66.0

Week of July 29
July 29
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	-13.5	-15.1

July 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May
Twenty City M/M	1.0%	1.4
Twenty City M/M - SA	0.6	0.4
Twenty City Y/Y	6.8	7.2

FHFA Home Price Index - May	0.3%	0.2
Consumer Confidence - July	99.7	100.4
JOLTS - June	8.140M	8.140

July 31
ADP Employment Report - July	165K	150

Employment Cost Index - Q2	1.0%	1.2
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y	4.1	4.2

Chicago PMI - July	41.4	47.4
Pending Home Sale Index - June	73.2	70.8

FMOC	5.375%	5.375

August 1
Productivity - Q2 (p)	2.2%	0.2
Unit Labor Costs	1.1	4.0

PMI Manufacturing Index - July	49.5	49.5
ISM (Mfg) - July	48.6	48.5
Construction Spending - June	0.3%	-0.1

Auto Sales - July	15.9M	15.3
Car Sales	3.0	2.8
Truck Sales	12.9	12.5

August 2
Nonfarm Payrolls - July	190K	206
Private	165	136
Manufacturing	10	-8
Unemployment	4.1%	4.1
Average Workweek	34.3	34.3
Average Hourly Earnings	0.3%	0.3

Factory Orders - June	0.5%	-0.5
Durable Goods Orders	0.6	0.1
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.4	-1.0

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