Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 3 And 10
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| Week of February 3 | |||
| February 3 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - January | 50.1 | 50.1 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 48.3% | 49.3 | |
| ISM Prices | |||
| Auto Sales - January | 16.6M | 16.8 | |
| Car Sales | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| Truck Sales | 13.5 | 13.9 | |
| February 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - December | -0.9% | -0.4 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -2.2 | -1.2 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| JOLTS - December | 8.000M | 8.098 | |
| February 5 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 155K | 122 | |
| International Trade - December | -$87.4B | -78.2 | |
| PMI Services Index - January | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
| ISM Services - January | 55.1 | 54.1 | |
| February 6 | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary | 2.0% | 2.2 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 4.2 | 0.8 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 215K | 207 | |
| February 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 180K | 256 | |
| Private | 165 | 223 | |
| Manufacturing | 5.0 | -13 | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) | 72.0 | 71.1 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (f) | -0.5% | -0.5 | |
| Consumer Credit - December | $12.5B | -7.5 | |
| Week of February 10 | |||
| February 11 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January | 103.5 | 105.1 | |
| February 12 | |||
| Consumer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.4 | |
| Core CPI | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| Treasury Budget - January | -$45.5B | -86.7 | |
| February 13 | |||
| Producer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.2 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| February 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - January | 0.4% | 0.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Export Prices - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Import Prices | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | -0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Industrial Production - January | 0.2% | 0.9 | |
| Manufacturing Output | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 77.6 | 77.6 | |
| Business Inventories - December | -0.1 | 0.1 | |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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