Image Source: Pixabay

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes:

Another month, another record high for the number of gov’t employees

Well, yes. Of course, population is also at a record high. So too is nominal GDP. What to do…what to do… maybe normalize? Maybe choose a longer sample period?

Figure 1: Government employees, 000’s (blue, left scale), and government employees as a ratio of population (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER. 

That being said, I am thankful the EJ Antoni/Heritage has stopped using the CPS measure of government employment (which he did here). An inspection of the CES and CPS counterparts highlights the fact that the CPS measure is unreliable at high frequencies.

Figure 2: Government employees from CES (blue), from CPS (red), both s.a. S NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER. 

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