Different Measures Of Consumer Prices
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Since 2021M01, the CPI has risen 17.3% (log terms). By comparison, chained CPI and HICP have risen by approximately 16.5%. The PCE deflator has risen only 14.4% by March 2024 – but these are prices of goods and services produced, not of prices faced by consumers.
Figure 1: CPI (blue), HICP (green), chained CPI (tan), PCE deflator (red), supercore CPI (pink), all in logs 2021M01=0. HICP and chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using Census X-13/X-11. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Eurostat, BEA via FRED, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
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