On Wednesday the US CPI data is released. The EURUSD has been weighed down this week on the strong NFP print from Friday, with the headline jobs number coming in above the 12-month average, and the weekend results from the European Parliamentary elections. Furthermore, the seasonals point to more EURUSD selling out of the US CPI print. Over the last 5 years the EURUSD has lost value over 60% of the time with maximum falls of 1.45% in the 2 days after the release.
If the CPI print surprises to the upside, and comes in above market’s maximum expectations, then watch for further USD buying and more EURUSD selling. However, remember that the Fed meeting is also on Wednesday, so that is another key event risk for the EURUSD to be aware of. See the CPI minimum and maximum expectations highlighted below, so you can recognise what a surprise print will look like.
Technically, the EURUSD has fallen lower with 1.0700 an obvious near term target for sellers on the recent EUR weakness and USD strength.
The major trade risk here is to be aware that the Fed are meeting in a just a few hours after the release of the CPI print.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
