Over the weekend OPEC+ agreed to extend their collective production cuts through to the end of 2025.
Previously, the cuts of around 3.6 million bpd, were expected to end this year. On top of this, the voluntary cuts from eight states of around 2.2 million bpd were extended from the end of Q2 2024 through to Q3 2024. So, why is the market not obviously moving higher on this? The reason is that the meeting also includes news that production will be gradually increased from Oct 2024 (depending on market conditions). So, the two-way news is mirrored by the two way seasonal pattern for oil. From June 04 through to July 13 oil has an upside bias with a 68% winning percentage and an average return of 2.84%. However, that seasonal pattern sharply changes as we come into the Autumn.
From September 02, through to December, the 01 oil has a 56% losing trade percentage with a 5.39% average loss. Technically there is a strong potential trendline on the weekly chart running from the weekly lows of April 20th 2020 and December lows of 2023. A clear break below this level would show the bears gaining control and stops would likely sit above $80 on any sharp drop lower.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
