Seasonax’s seasonality feature can flag up some great event patterns. One of these events that is always good to look at is the turn of the month effect.
Well known with stocks and indexes, but there can also be some interesting turn of the month reactions around currencies. The EURUSD for example has an interesting event pattern around the start of June, which is also around the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE print at 13:30 UK time on Friday May 31.
So, if we see a big miss in the PCE data to the downside on Friday, and a print below 2.6% y/y and 2.6% y/y for the core reading then markets will start to see more chances of lower US rates this year, which should lift the EURUSD pair higher. Over the last 15 years, around the turn of the month, the EURUSD pair has gained 80% of the time for a 0.61% return.
The largest gain has been 2.85% and the largest fall -2.05%. So, if we see a big miss in the PCE print on Friday watch for potential EURUSD gains! In terms of the expectations for the PCE print here is what’s expected below:
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
