USD/JPY Refreshes Almost Five-Month Low Near 148.40 As Fed Dovish Bets Swell

By Sagar Dua of FXStreet

Tuesday, March 4, 2025 9:10 AM EDT

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USD/JPY slumps to near 148.40 as traders have become increasingly confident that the Fed could cut interest rates in the June meeting.
US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China.
The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates further this year.

The USD/JPY pair posts a fresh almost five-month low near 148.40 in North American trading hours on Tuesday. The asset slumps as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid escalating Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 106.00, the lowest level seen in almost three months.

US Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.58%	-0.21%	-0.67%	-0.43%	-0.10%	-0.29%	-0.81%
EUR	0.58%		0.38%	-0.06%	0.16%	0.48%	0.30%	-0.26%
GBP	0.21%	-0.38%		-0.43%	-0.22%	0.11%	-0.07%	-0.62%
JPY	0.67%	0.06%	0.43%		0.22%	0.55%	0.36%	-0.18%
CAD	0.43%	-0.16%	0.22%	-0.22%		0.33%	0.15%	-0.41%
AUD	0.10%	-0.48%	-0.11%	-0.55%	-0.33%		-0.17%	-0.74%
NZD	0.29%	-0.30%	0.07%	-0.36%	-0.15%	0.17%		-0.55%
CHF	0.81%	0.26%	0.62%	0.18%	0.41%	0.74%	0.55%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Traders have raised bets supporting the Fed to resume the policy-easing cycle from the June meeting due to an array of weak US economic data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the central bank to cut interest rates in June has increased to 86% from 71% recorded a week ago.

Meanwhile, an additional 10% tariffs from US President Donald Trump on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico have failed to improve the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. Trump imposed an additional 10% levy on China for pouring drugs into the US economy. In retaliation, China has also announced tariffs on significant agriculture imports. This has resulted in a trade war between the world’s biggest nations, which has weighed on US indices.

On Monday, the S&P 500 slumped over 2% after Trump confirmed tariffs on his North American peers and China. Over weakness in the Wall Street, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the focus of the government is majorly on strengthening small businesses. “Wall Street’s done great, Wall Street can continue to do fine, but we have a focus on small business and consumers,” Bessent said on Fox News’s Fox & Friends on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly on mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.

Net long positions in yen futures among non-commercial traders - such as hedge funds and other speculators - soared to 96K contracts in the week ending February 25. That was up from 61K a week earlier, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday and was a record on data stretching back more than 30 years, Reuters report.

More By This Author:

USD/CAD Corrects To Near 1.4420 As US-Canada Enters Trade War
AUD/USD Jumps To Near 0.6230 As US Dollar Tumbles, Upside Remains Capped
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rallies To Near 157.00 As Yen Weakens Across The Board

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